Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao; Zhou, Baiquan

doi:10.1029/2018gl079216

Cited by 19 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The PDFs of the observed changes under the past half-degree warming increment all shift to positive and are located out of the expected internal variability ranges. Hence, the observed changes in extreme temperature intensity are detectable in continental China as in previous studies (Chen et al 2018;Zhao and Zhou 2019). The reanalysis datasets are consistent with the observation in this regard.…”

Section: Changes In the Intensity Indicessupporting

confidence: 91%

“…This indicate that the observed changes in climate extremes under this historical 0.5 °C warming increment can be used as observational metrics to evaluate model performance, or even regarded as analogues for the future projections (Schleussner et al 2017). Chen et al (2018) has pointed out that the temperature extreme changes are detectable in China under the past-half degree warming increment. Zhao and Zhou (2019) has compared the heat extreme changes under historical and future half-degree warming and find out that the historical changes in daytime heat extremes under the past 0.5 °C warming increment is a conservative estimation for the future projection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

2020

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The extreme temperature changes under a 0.5 °C global mean surface temperature warming increment is of great importance for climate change adaption and risk management on post-Paris-Agreement agenda. The impacts of the already happened 0.5 °C warming increment on extreme temperature can serve as essential references for the 1.5/2 °C projections. Quantifying the observed changes of climate extremes is hampered by the limitation of observational datasets in both spatial coverage and temporal continuity. The reanalysis datasets are hoped to be useful substitutes for the observations, but their performance over continental China remains unknown. In this study, we compare the extreme temperature changes associated with the past 0.5 °C warming derived from three reanalysis datasets including JRA-55, ERA and 20CR with the observation in China. Distinct increases (decreases) in warm (cold) extremes are detected in all three reanalyses in a spatially aggregated perspective as in the observation. On regional scales the reanalyses have evident spreads in regions with insufficient observational coverage such as the western China. JRA-55 shows good agreement with the observation in both spatial patterns and magnitudes of extreme temperature changes. Both ERA and 20CR show weaker consistency with the observation, particularly in western China, mainly due to less observational constraints in data assimilation. The different aerosol data used in reanalysis assimilation systems also influenced the data quality. Our results indicate that while the reanalyses can serve as useful substitutes to fill in the observational gaps, cautious should be taken in regions with sparse observations and large anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

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Section: Changes In the Intensity Indicessupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

2020

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“…In addition, a homogenized daily surface air temperature (T sair ) dataset (Cao et al 2016) is utilized to analyze how the UHI effects change during this study period. Both datasets are qualitycontrolled by the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA; http://data.cma.cn/data/online.html?t51), and have been widely used in previous climatological studies (e.g., Yuan et al 2010;Zhang and Zhai 2011;Luo et al 2016;Chen et al 2018). The national surface stations used in this study have over 90% of reliable hourly data during each JJA of 1975-2018.…”

Section: B Data and Methodologies For Exhp Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Urbanization Enhanced Summertime Extreme Hourly Precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta

et al. 2020

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An extensive urban agglomeration has occurred over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of East China as a result of rapid urbanization since the middle 1990s. In this study, a 44-yr (i.e., 1975-2018) climatology of the summertime extreme hourly precipitation (EXHP; greater than the 90th percentile) over the YRD is analyzed, using historical land-use data, surface temperature, and hourly rain gauge observations, and then the relationship between rapid urbanization and EXHP changes is examined. Results show significant EXHP contrasts in diurnal variation and storm type roughly before and after middle July. That is, tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 16.4% of the total EXHP hours, 80.5% of which occur during the late summer, whereas non-TC EXHP accounts for 94.7% and 66.2% during the early and late summer, respectively. Increasing trends in occurrence frequency and amount of the non-TC and TC-induced EXHP are detected over the urban agglomeration. Statistically significant larger increasing trends in both the EXHP and surface temperature are observed at urban stations than those at the nearby rural stations. An analysis of 113 locally developed non-TC extreme rainfall events during 2011-18 summers also suggests the contribution of the urban heat island effects to the more occurrences of EXHP, especially over a band-shaped urban region where several major cities are distributed. This study reveals a significant correlation between rapid urbanization and increased EXHP during the past two decades over the YRD region. The results have important implications for understanding the impact of urbanization on EXHP changes in a warming climate.FIG. 13. Composite spatial distributions of the region-normalized precipitation amount (shading) of the 2011-18 EXREs with (a) strong UHI and (b) weak UHI, respectively. Cyan dots denote stations with hourly precipitation records $ 23.7 mm h 21 occurring more than twice.

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“…In addition, to assess whether the impact of past 0.5°C warming increment on heat extremes in China is detectable in the observational data sets, we randomly choose 100 pairs of 20‐year period mean differences from 1961 to 2010, which are expected to be the internal variability, and the 25–75% range is shown in the figures. Observational results that shift out of the expected internal variability are regarded as detectable (Y. Chen et al, ; Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the past ~50 years (1961–2009), a significant long‐term increasing trend in temperature extremes in China is found in multiple instrumental observational data sets (Yin et al, ). The past half‐degree of global warming has a detectable impact on complex summertime hot events defined as days with both extremely elevated daytime and nighttime maximum temperatures (Y. Chen et al, ). Detection and attribution of changes in mean and extreme temperatures and in heat wave events in China have enriched the evidence of the inevitable anthropogenic influences (Dong et al, ; Ma et al, ; Sun et al, ; Xu et al, ; Yin et al, ; Zhai et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half‐Degree Warming Increment Analogues for Future Projections?

Zhao

Zhou

2019

Earth's Future

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Projecting climate impacts of a half-degree warming increment is of high priority on post Paris Agreement science agendas. As the real world has already witnessed a 0.5°C global mean surface temperature warming increment, the observed climate changes associated with the half-degree warming may be analogues for future projections. This hypothesis is examined by comparing the heat extreme changes in China derived from the observational records to projections of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) low-warming experiment, which is the first short-term stabilized simulation dedicated for the 1.5 and 2°C warming targets. The results of the CESM historical simulations are also evaluated. From the perspective of spatially aggregated, the heat extreme changes in China under the historical 0.5°C warming are detectable in observations. The nighttime extremes manifest more significant increase than daytime extremes. Heat extreme changes under the past half-degree warming increment are reasonably captured in the historical simulations with slightly weaker magnitudes. The changes in the intensity indices in observations are better reproduced by the historical simulations than the frequency and duration indices. For the heat extreme changes in the future 0.5°C warming, the observational records can serve as conservative analogues in daytime extremes, while the nighttime extreme indices show comparable or weaker changes. The future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions will amplify the increase of heat extremes in comparison to present day especially during daytime in China. Given the possibly intensified extremes associated with future aerosol reductions, more attention should be paid to the currently heavy polluted regions.Plain Language Summary Since the Paris Agreement called for limiting the future global warming under 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit under 1.5°C, great efforts have been devoted to exploring the benefits of the 0.5°C less warming on natural and social systems. Since the world has already witnessed a 0.5°C warming increment, whether the associated observed climate changes can be analogues for future projections is an interesting and important question. Focusing on the heat extreme changes over continental China, we revisit the observational data sets to evaluate the performance of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) historical simulations and then compare the observed changes with the CESM 1.5°C/2°C future projections. We find that the heat extreme changes under the past 0.5°C warming increment are detectable in observations and can be well reproduced by the historical simulations. The changes of intensity indices in the observations are better reproduced by the model than the frequency and duration indices. For the daytime heat extremes, the observations only give the lower boundary for the projected changes in future 0.5°C warming. China may experience severer increase in daytime heat extremes due to possible aerosol reductions in the future. Our results would provide useful information to ...

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Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Cited by 19 publications

References 53 publications

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

Urbanization Enhanced Summertime Extreme Hourly Precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta

Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half‐Degree Warming Increment Analogues for Future Projections?

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