Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half‐Degree Warming Increment Analogues for Future Projections?

Zhao, Siyao; Zhou, Tianjun

doi:10.1029/2019ef001237

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…The PDFs of the observed changes under the past half-degree warming increment all shift to positive and are located out of the expected internal variability ranges. Hence, the observed changes in extreme temperature intensity are detectable in continental China as in previous studies (Chen et al 2018;Zhao and Zhou 2019). The reanalysis datasets are consistent with the observation in this regard.…”

Section: Changes In the Intensity Indicessupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Chen et al (2018) has pointed out that the temperature extreme changes are detectable in China under the past-half degree warming increment. Zhao and Zhou (2019) has compared the heat extreme changes under historical and future half-degree warming and find out that the historical changes in daytime heat extremes under the past 0.5 °C warming increment is a conservative estimation for the future projection. How to reliably quantify the observed changes is thus of central importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

2020

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The extreme temperature changes under a 0.5 °C global mean surface temperature warming increment is of great importance for climate change adaption and risk management on post-Paris-Agreement agenda. The impacts of the already happened 0.5 °C warming increment on extreme temperature can serve as essential references for the 1.5/2 °C projections. Quantifying the observed changes of climate extremes is hampered by the limitation of observational datasets in both spatial coverage and temporal continuity. The reanalysis datasets are hoped to be useful substitutes for the observations, but their performance over continental China remains unknown. In this study, we compare the extreme temperature changes associated with the past 0.5 °C warming derived from three reanalysis datasets including JRA-55, ERA and 20CR with the observation in China. Distinct increases (decreases) in warm (cold) extremes are detected in all three reanalyses in a spatially aggregated perspective as in the observation. On regional scales the reanalyses have evident spreads in regions with insufficient observational coverage such as the western China. JRA-55 shows good agreement with the observation in both spatial patterns and magnitudes of extreme temperature changes. Both ERA and 20CR show weaker consistency with the observation, particularly in western China, mainly due to less observational constraints in data assimilation. The different aerosol data used in reanalysis assimilation systems also influenced the data quality. Our results indicate that while the reanalyses can serve as useful substitutes to fill in the observational gaps, cautious should be taken in regions with sparse observations and large anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

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Section: Changes In the Intensity Indicessupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

2020

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“…The weighted changes at each grid point fall in the corresponding bin of the PDF derived from the nonparametric assessment of the PDF. The spatial PDF was proposed by Fischer et al (2013) and used for the detection of extreme climate events (e.g., Fischer & Knutti, 2014; Zhao et al, 2020; Zhao & Zhou, 2019).…”

Section: Data and Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation Under Stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming Futures

et al. 2020

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Changes in hydrological cycle under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming are of great concern on the post-Paris Agreement agenda. In particular, the annual range of precipitation, that is, the difference between the wet and dry seasons, is important to society and ecosystem. This study examines the changes in precipitation annual range using the Community Earth System Model low-warming (CESM-LW) experiment, designed to assess climate change at stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels. To reflect the exact annual range in different regions, wet and dry seasons are defined for each grid point and year. Based on this metric, the precipitation annual range would increase by 3.90% (5.27%) under 1.5°C (2.0°C) warming. The additional 0.5°C of warming would increase annual range of precipitation by 1.37%. The enhancement is seen globally, except in some regions around the subtropics. Under the additional 0.5°C of warming, a significant increase in the annual range occurs over 15% (22%) of the ocean (land) regions. The increase is associated with the enhanced precipitation during wet season. Moisture budget analysis shows that the enhancement in annual range is dominated by vertical moisture advection, which includes thermodynamic (TH, moisture) and climate dynamic (CD, circulation changes) terms. The TH term plays a dominant role, while the CD term partly offsets the effects of the TH term. The TH term dominates over most regions except for part of the tropical ocean and some of the land regions, where the CD term is also remarkable. Thus, the enhancement of the annual range of precipitation is mainly caused by the increase in moisture. Plain Language Summary The Paris Agreement proposed a target to limit global warming to less than 2°C and pursue efforts to limit warming to less than 1.5°C. Since then, great effort has been devoted to exploring the impacts of the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios. The changes in the seasonal cycles of precipitation have important impacts on natural and human systems but are unknown under 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels. We focus on the changes in the annual range of precipitation, which represents seasonal cycle and is defined as the difference between wet and dry seasonal rainfall in which the wet and dry seasons vary spatially and temporally. We project the changes by using CESM low-warming experiments. In the experiments, the multiyear global mean surface temperatures will stabilize at 1.5°C and 2.0°C above the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century. We find significant increases in seasonal cycle over both ocean and land. The increase is dominated by the enhancement of precipitation during wet season. The increased seasonal cycle is caused by the increase in water vapor over most regions except for part of the tropical ocean and some of the land regions, where the effects of circulation changes are remarkable.

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“…Australia; and Vautard et al (2014) for Europe; Osima et al (2018) and Nkemelang et al (2018) for Africa; Swain and Hayhoe (2015) and Karmalkar and Bradley (2017) for the United States; Xu et al (2017), Chen and Sun (2018), , , Shi et al (2018), and Zhao and Zhou (2019) for East Asia (EA).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Köppen‐Trewartha Climate‐Type Changes Over the CORDEX‐East Asia Phase 2 Domain Under 2 and 3 °C Global Warming

Ahn

Cha

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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For the comprehensive estimation of regional climate change over East Asia (EA) at the 2 and 3°C global warming levels (GWLs), the Köppen-Trewartha climate-type change is assessed with ensemble regional climate change projections in line with Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-EA phase 2. Under the 2°C (3°C) GWL, 17.6% (25.2%) of the EA region is expected to undergo major climate-type changes. Tropical and subtropical climate types will expand northward, accompanied by increasing hydroclimatic intensity. Limiting GWL to 2°C shows benefits by preventing subtropical-type expansion around far EA. Desertification over inland regions of EA exhibits scenario dependency. Boreal and tundra climate types over high-latitude regions will tend to decrease rapidly, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. The results are expected to be a baseline assessment of climate change over EA under the 2 and 3°C GWLs above the preindustrial level.Plain Language Summary This paper investigates the Köppen-Trewartha climate-type changes over East Asia (EA) at the 2 and 3°C global warming levels (GWLs) with the ensemble regional climate simulations. Under the 2°C (3°C) GWL, 17.6% (25.2%) of the EA region is expected to undergo major climate-type changes. The result shows increased tropical, subtropical, and desert climate types accompanied by intensification of hydroclimatic stress. In addition, boreal and tundra climate types over high-latitude regions will tend to decrease rapidly, especially over the Tibetan Plateau under the 2 and 3°C GWLs.

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Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half‐Degree Warming Increment Analogues for Future Projections?

Cited by 14 publications

References 58 publications

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

Consistency of extreme temperature changes in China under a historical half-degree warming increment across different reanalysis and observational datasets

Projected Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation Under Stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming Futures

The Köppen‐Trewartha Climate‐Type Changes Over the CORDEX‐East Asia Phase 2 Domain Under 2 and 3 °C Global Warming

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