Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Martin, Gill; Chevuturi, Amulya; Comer, Ruth; Dunstone, Nick; Scaife, Adam A.; Da-Quan, Zhang

doi:10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z

Cited by 47 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…However, as noted by Wang et al (2008), an advantage of the EASMI is that it can be monitored on a variety of time scales and is known to be an excellent indicator of variations in the SCS summer monsoon onset (Wang et al, 2004). Martin et al (2019) recently demonstrated significant predictive skill for the SCS summer monsoon onset in GloSea5. We next investigate the predictive skill for the monthly mean EASMI in GloSea5.…”

Section: Sources Of Skillmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

et al. 2019

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We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall directly. Although interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations, which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale, the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high. The ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

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Section: Sources Of Skillmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

et al. 2019

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“…() and National Climate Center (). Since the zonal wind is the most prominent parameter of the SCSSM and is widely used in determining the SCSSM onset (e.g., Wang et al ., ; Kajikawa and Wang, ; Luo and Lin, ; Hu et al ., ), thus the zonal wind is also employed to determining the SCSSM withdrawal day in this study as in previous studies (Luo and Lin, ; Hu et al ., ; ; ; Martin et al ., ). Namely, the monsoon withdrawal is regarded as the nearest day to the withdrawal pentad of National Climate Center () when the westerly to easterly transition occurs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One may argue that the SCSSM withdrawal date determined by National Climate Center (2016) is somewhat subjective (e.g., "steadily" transition and the large-scale circulation pattern), and it may be more reasonable to objectively determine the monsoon withdrawal by some criteria (e.g., Lam et al, 2005;Zhang et al, 2014;Luo and Lin, 2017). By considering the same two monsoonal parameters (but the threshold for potential pseudo-equivalent temperature is set to 335 K; Martin et al, 2019), Zhang et al (2014) quantitatively defined the steadily state as (a) the state is maintained for two pentads and is then interrupted for one pentad but immediately returns to the state before interruption, or (b) the state is maintained at least for three pentads and can be interrupted for no more than two pentads thereafter. Most of the SCSSM withdrawal pentad determined by National Climate Center (2016) and Zhang et al (2014) are the same, and their correlation is as high as 0.74 during 1951-2102, which is significant at the 99.9% confidence level according to the two-tailed Student's t test (Hu et al, 2018b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of the impacts of intra‐seasonal oscillations on the South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal

Chen

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Based on multiple data sets and methods, this study investigates the impacts of intra‐seasonal oscillations (ISOs) on the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) withdrawal. A daily SCSSM withdrawal date is established, which can capture reasonably the consistent transition of low‐level zonal wind from westerly to easterly over the South China Sea (SCS). The bandpass‐filtered outgoing longwave radiation and low‐level winds are then composited with respect to the monsoon withdrawal date. It is found that a 30–60‐day oscillation originating from the equatorial Indian Ocean and a quasi‐biweekly oscillation (QBWO) propagating from the equatorial western Pacific collectively contribute to the SCSSM withdrawal. Under the background of slow annual cycle (weak zonal wind during late September), the local convectively inactive phases of these ISOs induce anomalous easterly winds, which could trigger monsoon withdrawal over the SCS. The boreal summer ISO indices also confirm that both the 30–60‐day oscillation and the QBWO could modulate SCSSM withdrawal, which is more likely to occur when the suppressed convection caused by these ISOs is either encroaching on or occupying the SCS.

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“…While the South Asian monsoon is confined to be equatorward of ∼ 30 • N, the East Asian monsoon extends north of this into the extratropics. Although the monsoon onset over the South China Sea has been considered a precursor to the East Asian monsoon onset (Martin et al, 2019;B. Wang et al, 2004), some authors (e.g., B.…”

Section: East Asian 'Monsoon'mentioning

confidence: 99%