The development of Arctic marine resources is currently the focus of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, which is due to the presence of significant hydrocarbon reserves. However, the decision-making process for implementing offshore oil and gas projects in the Arctic is highly uncertain and requires consideration of many factors. This study presents a comprehensive approach to evaluating the prospects of oil production on the Russian Arctic shelf. It is based on a specific methodology which involves expert forecasting methods. We analyze the current conditions and key factors and indicators, focusing on oil prices and quality of technologies that could influence the decision-making in the oil and gas company concerning Arctic offshore fields’ development. We use general scientific methods—analysis, synthesis, classification and systematization—and propose a method for assessing the prospects of Arctic projects which is based on a three-step algorithm. Together with practical tools presented in the article, it will support decision-making on the project initiation and the development of a particular field.
The development of mineral resources in the Arctic territories is one of the priorities of the state policy of Russia. This endeavor requires modern technologies, high-quality personnel, and a large number of labor resources. However, the regions of the Arctic are characterized by difficult working and living conditions, which makes them unattractive to the working population. The research objectives were to study the importance of Arctic mineral resources for the Russian economy, the Arctic mineral resource potential, and the migration attractiveness of Arctic regions. The migration processes in these locations were analyzed and modeled using a new econometric tool—complex-valued regression models. The authors assume that the attractiveness of the Arctic regions is determined by the level of their social and economic development and can be assessed using a number of indicators. A comparative analysis of four regions that are entirely in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation was carried out based on the calculation of integral indicators of the social and economic attractiveness of these territories. Forecasting migration growth using the proposed complex-valued models produced better results than simple trend extrapolation. The authors conclude that complex-valued economic models can be successfully used to forecast migration processes in the Arctic regions of Russia. Understanding and predicting migration processes in the Arctic will make it possible to develop recommendations for attracting labor resources to the region, which will contribute to the successful development of its resource potential. The methodology of this study includes desk studies, a graphical method, arithmetic calculations, correlation analysis, statistical analysis, and the methods of the complex-valued economy.
Development of Arctic oil and gas resources is relevant due to the strategic importance of hydrocarbons, as well as Arctic territories as a whole for our country. The prospects for the Arctic shelf are related, first of all, to the development of domestic available mineral resources, the socio-economic development of the Arctic region, the maintenance of innovative activity of Russian industries, the strengthening of international positions of the country, the creation of industrial growth centers in the northern territories. Prospects for Arctic oil and gas resources development remain unclear today due to the high degree of uncertainty about external (especially macroeconomics and politics) and internal (project) environment factors. This fact makes it necessary to develop scientifically sound approaches to predicting the development of the Arctic shelf oil and gas resource. This paper considered the existing forecasts of oil production on the Arctic shelf, highlighted the specific features of forecasting the prospects for Arctic shelf projects implementation, considered the peculiarities of the application of statistical and expert forecasting methods. On the basis of the example of oil price forecasting, as a key indicator affecting the prospects of offshore projects, it was concluded that there are limited possibility of using statistical methods and the need to use expert approaches. It has been determined that in order to create a holistic approach to forecasting the future of Arctic offshore oil and gas projects, a comprehensive algorithm based on the use of existing forecasting methods and their reasonable combination, taking into account the peculiarities of predicted systems and indicators, is necessary.
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