Abstract. We present a comparison of tropospheric NO 2 from OMI measurements to the median of an ensemble of Regional Air Quality (RAQ) models, and an intercomparison of the contributing RAQ models and two global models for the period July 2008-June 2009 over Europe. The model forecasts were produced routinely on a daily basis in the context of the European GEMS ("Global and regional Earth-system (atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data") project. The tropospheric vertical column of the RAQ ensemble median shows a spatial distribution which agrees well with the OMI NO 2 observations, with a correlation r=0.8. This is higher than the correlations from any one of the individual RAQ models, which supports the use of a model ensemble approach for regional air pollution forecasting. The global models show high correlations compared Correspondence to: V. Huijnen (huijnen@knmi.nl) to OMI, but with significantly less spatial detail, due to their coarser resolution. Deviations in the tropospheric NO 2 columns of individual RAQ models from the mean were in the range of 20-34% in winter and 40-62% in summer, suggesting that the RAQ ensemble prediction is relatively more uncertain in the summer months.The ensemble median shows a stronger seasonal cycle of NO 2 columns than OMI, and the ensemble is on average 50% below the OMI observations in summer, whereas in winter the bias is small. On the other hand the ensemble median shows a somewhat weaker seasonal cycle than NO 2 surface observations from the Dutch Air Quality Network, and on average a negative bias of 14%.Full profile information was available for two RAQ models and for the global models. For these models the retrieval averaging kernel was applied. Minor differences are found for area-averaged model columns with and without applying the kernel, which shows that the impact of replacing the a priori profiles by the RAQ model profiles is on average small.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. V. Huijnen et al.:Comparison of NO 2 in regional and global models to OMI However, the contrast between major hotspots and rural areas is stronger for the direct modeled vertical columns than the columns where the averaging kernels are applied, related to a larger relative contribution of the free troposphere and the coarse horizontal resolution in the a priori profiles compared to the RAQ models.In line with validation results reported in the literature, summertime concentrations in the lowermost boundary layer in the a priori profiles from the DOMINO product are significantly larger than the RAQ model concentrations and surface observations over the Netherlands. This affects the profile shape, and contributes to a high bias in OMI tropospheric columns over polluted regions. The global models indicate that the upper troposphere may contribute significantly to the total column and it is important to account for this in comparisons with RAQ models. A combination of upper troposphere model biases, the a priori profile effec...

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Abstract. We have developed an integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors, which can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. Central for the system is a newly developed tagging method capable of calculating the contribution from a specific emission source or sector to the overall air pollution levels, taking into account the non-linear atmospheric chemistry. The main objective of this work is to identify the anthropogenic emission sources in Europe and Denmark that contribute the most to human health impacts. In this study, we applied the EVA system to Europe and Denmark, with a detailed analysis of health-related external costs from the ten major emission sectors and their relative contributions. The paper contains a thorough description of the EVA system, the main results from the assessment of the main contributors and a discussion of the most important atmospheric chemical reactions relevant for interpreting the results. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the major contributors to health-related external costs are major power production, agriculture, road traffic, and non-industrial domestic combustion, including wood combustion. We conclude that when regulating the emissions of ammonia from the agricultural sector, both the impacts on nature and on human health should be taken into account. This study confirms that air pollution constitutes a serious problem for human health and that the related external costs are considerable. The results in this work emphasize the importance of defining the right questions in the decision-making process. The results from assessing the impacts from each emission sector depend clearly on the assumption that the other emission sectors are not changed, especially emissions changing concentrations of atmospheric OH and therefore lifetimes of other chemical species.

A B S T R A C T Enhancement of number concentrations of particles with sizes less than 25 nm diameter has been frequently observed in the boundary layer over the central Arctic Ocean during summer. The sectional aerosol dynamics model for Marine Aerosol Formation (MAFOR) was applied to evaluate the capability of different nucleation mechanisms to reproduce nucleation events observed during three expeditions (1996, 2001 and 2008) onboard the Swedish icebreaker Oden. Model calculations suggest that a source rate of a condensable organic vapour (OV) of about 2)10 5 cm (3 s (1 is required to reproduce observed growth of nucleation mode particles. Nucleation rates predicted by the newly proposed combined sulphuric acid nucleation mechanism, which best described new particle formation in the Arctic, ranged from 0.04 to 0.1 cm (3 s (1 . This mechanism additively combines ion-mediated nucleation and cluster activation, and treats condensation of OV without correction of the Kelvin effect. In several events, the simultaneous number enhancement of particles in the 20Á50 nm size range remained unexplained by the nucleation mechanisms. This lends support to alternative theories such as the fragmentation of marine gels ( :200Á500 nm diameter in size) by physical or chemical processes.

An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr⁻¹ for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr⁻¹ in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr⁻¹, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, or at least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impact on human health in Europe