Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system

Abstract

An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr⁻¹ for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr⁻¹ in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr⁻¹, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, or at least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impact on human health in Europe

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the frame work of AQMEII3

“…They found that the combined effect of climate change and emission reductions will reduce 146 the premature mortality due to air pollution, in agreement with the results from Schucht et al Air pollution related health impacts and associated costs can be calculated using Chemical Pollution (EVA) model (Brandt et al, 2013a;2013b). This is the first study in our knowledge 188 that uses a common approach across the two continents regarding health impact assessment …”

Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

“…The accumulated YOLLs per country (in thousands), as listed in Table 2, is the total number of statistical life years lost over the lifetime of the population above the age of 30 for selected countries adjacent to the two sea areas. These numbers can be compared to previous calculations of the effects of present ship emissions by Hammingh et al (2012) and Brandt et al (2013). The calculations in Hammingh et al (2012) have also been made with the EMEP model, but with a 50 × 50 km 2 horizontal resolution and a different methodology for calculating YOLL from PM 2.5 .…”

“…Compared to the YOLLs listed here their numbers are lower for most countries listed (as the YOLL calculations applies the population above the age of 30, and assuming a life expectancy of 80 years, the numbers in Table 2 have been divided by 50 to get comparable annual figures). The contributions to YOLL from international shipping in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea listed in Brandt et al (2013) are difficult to compare, as they represent different regions from those listed in Table 2. Their calculated annual YOLL in Europe from international shipping in 2011 is about a factor of 3 higher than the similar contribution to the countries listed in Table 2.…”

“…On a global scale both the climate effects and air pollution have been studied (Corbett et al, 1999Endresen et al, 2003;Eyring et al, 2007;Fuglestvedt et al, 2010). In addition several regional studies have addressed the regional impacts of ship emissions in Europe (Jonson et al, 2000(Jonson et al, , 2009Andersson et al, 2007;Brandt et al, 2013). Tuovinen et al (2013) looked at the effect of increased shipping in the Arctic sea-lanes on nitrogen deposition and ozone uptake by vegetation.…”

“…The regional studies point to ship emissions as a major source of air pollution in Europe, in particular in coastal, often densely populated, areas. Brandt et al (2013) looked at the effects of air pollution from international shipping on air pollution and health on Northern Hemisphere scale to regional northern European scales. They calculate a 36 % reduction in health-related external costs from between the years 2000 and 2020 as a result of emission reductions in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.…”