Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of  air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Jonson, Jan Eiof; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Johansson, Lasse; Gauss, Michael; Gon, Hugo Denier van der

doi:10.5194/acp-15-783-2015

Cited by 106 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Indeed, these curves have been used to assess air pollution health impacts on a global scale covering all populations (Anenberg, Daven, et al, ; Anenberg, Miller, et al, ; Apte et al, ; Cohen et al, ), and in individual countries where no air pollution epidemiology has been carried out (e.g., Anenberg, Daven, et al, ; Pillarisetti et al, ). Using similar extrapolations of epidemiologically derived concentration‐response functions, several studies have estimated the health impacts of emissions from particular sources among Arctic nations, including shipping (Jonson et al, ), solid fuel heating (World Bank & ICCI, . ; Chafe et al, ; Sigsgaard et al, ), and transportation (Anenberg, Miller, et al, ; Crippa et al, ).…”

Section: Arctic Specific Health Impacts From Air Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

et al. 2018

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Air pollution in the Arctic caused by local emission sources is a challenge that is important but often overlooked. Local Arctic air pollution can be severe and significantly exceed air quality standards, impairing public health and affecting ecosystems. Specifically in the wintertime, pollution can accumulate under inversion layers. However, neither the contributing emission sources are well identified and quantified nor the relevant atmospheric mechanisms forming pollution are well understood. In the summer, boreal forest fires cause high levels of atmospheric pollution. Despite the often high exposure to air pollution, there are neither specific epidemiological nor toxicological health impact studies in the Arctic. Hence, effects on the local population are difficult to estimate at present. Socioeconomic development of the Arctic is already occurring and expected to be significant in the future. Arctic destination shipping is likely to increase with the development of natural resource extraction, and tourism might expand. Such development will not only lead to growth in the population living in the Arctic but will likely increase emission types and magnitudes. Present‐day inventories show a large spread in the amount and location of emissions representing a significant source of uncertainty in model predictions that often deviate significantly from observations. This is a challenge for modeling studies that aim to assess the impacts of within Arctic air pollution. Prognoses for the future are hence even more difficult, given the additional uncertainty of estimating emissions based on future Arctic economic development scenarios.

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Section: Arctic Specific Health Impacts From Air Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

et al. 2018

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“…Reductions of ship exhaust emissions in areas with high emission levels and a surrounding dense population is likely to yield major health benefits (e.g. Corbett et al, 2007;USEPA, 2008;Bosch et al, 2009;Brandt et al, 2013;Jonson et al, 2015). However, policy changes for reducing shipping emissions may have significant cost impacts (e.g.…”

Section: Summaries Of Total Emissions and Their Geographical Distribumentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive inventory of ship traffic exhaust emissions in the European sea areas in 2011

2016

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Abstract. Emissions originating from ship traffic in European sea areas were modelled using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM), which uses Automatic Identification System data to describe ship traffic activity. We have estimated the emissions from ship traffic in the whole of Europe in 2011. We report the emission totals, the seasonal variation, the geographical distribution of emissions, and their disaggregation between various ship types and flag states. The total ship emissions of CO 2 , NO x , SO x , CO, and PM 2.5 in Europe for year 2011 were estimated to be 121, 3.0, 1.2, 0.2, and 0.2 million tons, respectively. The emissions of CO 2 from the Baltic Sea were evaluated to be more than a half (55 %) of the emissions of the North Sea shipping; the combined contribution of these two sea regions was almost as high (88 %) as the total emissions from ships in the Mediterranean. As expected, the shipping emissions of SO x were significantly lower in the SO x Emission Control Areas, compared with the corresponding values in the Mediterranean. Shipping in the Mediterranean Sea is responsible for 40 and 49 % of the European ship emitted CO 2 and SO x emissions, respectively. In particular, this study reported significantly smaller emissions of NO x , SO x , and CO for shipping in the Mediterranean than the EMEP inventory; however, the reported PM 2.5 emissions were in a fairly good agreement with the corresponding values reported by EMEP. The vessels registered to all EU member states are responsible for 55 % of the total CO 2 emitted by ships in the study area. The vessels under the flags of convenience were responsible for 25 % of the total CO 2 emissions.

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“…But for global-scale modelling, some important updates have been incorporated. Although the model has traditionally been aimed at European simulations, global scale modelling has been possible for many years (Jonson et al, , 2015aWild et al, 2012). These updates, resulting in EMEP model version rv4.9 as used here, have been described in Simpson et al (2016) and references cited therein.…”

Section: Model Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surfacebased measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O 3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM 2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM 2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O 3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NO x titration is probably the main reason for the O 3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O 3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb). This variation in O 3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O 3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM 2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed.The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O 3 and PM 2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67 % on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM 2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust.

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Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Cited by 106 publications

References 22 publications

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

A comprehensive inventory of ship traffic exhaust emissions in the European sea areas in 2011

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India

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Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

Cited by 106 publications

References 22 publications

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem

A comprehensive inventory of ship traffic exhaust emissions in the European sea areas in 2011

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; over India

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Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India