Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50% of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

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Aim The aim of this study was to determine how spatial variation in vegetation type and landscape connectivity influence fire intervals in a semi-arid landscape with low relief and complex mosaics of woodland and shrubland vegetation.Location Our study focused on a 15,500-km 2 area of relatively undisturbed and unmanaged land in south-western Australia, referred to as the Lake Johnston region.Methods We modelled fire-interval data from a 67-year (1940-2006) digital fire history database using a two-parameter Weibull function, and tested for the effects of vegetation type and landscape connectivity on estimates of the length of fire intervals (Weibull parameter b) and the dependence of fire intervals on fuel age (Weibull parameter c).Results Vegetation type and landscape connectivity significantly influenced fire interval probability distributions. Fire intervals in shrublands (dense low shrub assemblage) were typically shorter (b = 46 years) and more dependent on fuel age (c = 2.33) than most other vegetation types, while fire intervals in open eucalypt woodlands were much longer (b = 405 years) and were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.36) than in shrub-dominated vegetation types. Areas adjacent to or surrounded by salt lakes burnt less frequently (b = 319 years) and fire intervals were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.48) compared with more exposed areas (e.g. b < 101 years, c > 1.68). Fire intervals in thickets (dense tall shrub assemblage) were longer (b = 101 years) than would be expected from fuel loads, most likely because they were protected from fire by surrounding fuellimited woodlands.Main conclusions Fire intervals in south-western Australia are strongly influenced by spatial variation in vegetation (fuel structure) and landscape connectivity. The importance of fuel structure as a control of fire intervals in south-western Australia contrasts with other landscapes, where topographical gradients or climatic influences may override the effects of underlying vegetation. We found that, regardless of low relief, topographical features such as large salt lake systems limited the connectivity and spread of fire among landscape units in an analogous manner to lakes or mountainous features elsewhere.

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar–May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.