Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Palmer, Jonathan; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline F.; Baker, Patrick J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002

Cited by 149 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Single location records are compared to each of our regions. For the ANZDA (Palmer et al, 2015), area averages of the NRM clusters are extracted for comparison with the NRM regions. Table 1a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1a). The majority of the records used are derived from the underlying network of the recently developed Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA) (Palmer et al, 2015) and the Ocean2k project, which is part of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) programme (Neukom and Gergis, 2012;Tierney et al, 2015). The entire network includes 131 tree-ring records from the Australasian Pacific area, 36 coral-derived records from the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and five speleothemderived records.…”

Section: Palaeoclimate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Palmer et al (2015) recently introduced the Australia and New Zealand Drought Atlas (ANZDA), using the approach developed for Asia (Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) (Cook et al, 2010)), Europe (Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) (E. R. ) and North America by Cook et al (2010). The ANZDA reconstructs the past 500 years of the Palmer Drought severity index (PDSI) for a 0.5…”

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confidence: 99%

“…However, the strong links between large-scale remote climate drivers and Australian climate mean that remote proxies can contain a useful climate signal. Several recent studies have used remote teleconnections and climate drivers to obtain skilful reconstructions (Palmer et al, 2015;Tozer et al, 2016;Vance et al, 2015). In this study, we introduce a new method to reconstruct regional rainfall by systematically relating instrumental rainfall and proxy information to remote climate influences.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30-and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Palaeoclimate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

et al. 2017

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“…Droughts can cause rapid and widespread forest changes, and drought-induced mortality has been recorded in all of New Zealand's major forest types (Atkinson & Greenwood 1972;Skipworth 1981;Grant 1984;Innes & Kelly 1992). The recorded frequency of drought ranges from about twice per decade on average in the Auckland Region, up to every 2 years in the eastern South Island (Burrows & Greenland 1979;Salinger 1979;Salinger & Porteous 2014;Palmer et al 2015). As with wind-throw, the effects of both snow-break and drought can act synergistically with insect and pathogen attack, a phenomenon particularly noted in beech forests (Skipworth 1981;Wardle & Allen 1983;Hutcheson & Hosking 1986).…”

Section: Weather-related Disturbancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Zealand forest dynamics: a review of past and present vegetation responses to disturbance, and development of conceptual forest models

Wyse¹,

Wilmshurst²,

Burns³

et al. 2018

NZ J Ecol

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New Zealand forests have been and are shaped by a suite of disturbance types that vary in both their spatial extent and frequency of recurrence. Post-disturbance forest dynamics can be complex, non-linear, and involve multiple potential pathways depending on the nature of a perturbation, site conditions, and history. To capture the full range of spatial and temporal dynamics that shape forest ecosystems in a given area, we need to use and synthesise data sources that collectively capture all the relevant space-time scales. Here we integrate palaeoecological data with contemporary ecological evidence to build conceptual models describing post-disturbance dynamics in New Zealand (NZ) forests, encompassing large temporal and spatial scales. We review NZ forest disturbance regimes, focussing primarily on geological and geomorphic disturbances and weather-related disturbances but also considering the role of anthropogenic disturbance in shaping present-day NZ forests. Combining information from 58 studies of post-disturbance forest succession, we derive conceptual models and describe forest communities and forest change for conifer-angiosperm (including kauri forest), and beech forests (pure and mixed). The methods used in these studies included chronosequences, assessments of stand dynamics, longitudinal studies, palaeoecological reconstructions, and comparisons with historical observations; the temporal range of the studies extended from 15 years to millennia (c. 14 000 years BP). Our models capture the generalities of NZ forest dynamics, and can be used to support modelling and help guide decision-making in areas such as ecosystem restoration. However, this generality limits model resolution, meaning the models do not always portray the specific features of individual sites and successional pathways. There is, therefore, scope for more detailed, site-specific development and refinement of these frameworks. Finally, our models capture successional pathways and native plant communities from the past and present; invasive species, climate change, and exotic plant pathogens are likely to alter future forest dynamics in novel and unpredictable ways. These models, however, provide us with baselines against which to interpret and assess the impacts of such effects on forest composition and processes.

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Can a paleodrought record be used to reconstruct streamflow?: A case study for the Missouri River Basin

Lall

Cook

2016

Water Resources Research

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Recent advances in paleoclimatology have revealed dramatic long‐term hydroclimatic variations that provide a context for limited historical records. A notable data set derived from a relatively dense network of paleoclimate proxy records in North America is the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a gridded tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Index. This index has been used to assess North American drought frequency, persistence, and spatial extent over the past two millennia. Here, we explore whether the LBDA can be used to reconstruct annual streamflow. Relative to streamflow reconstructions that use tree rings within the river basin of interest, the use of a gridded proxy poses a novel challenge. The gridded series have high spatial correlation, since they rely on tree rings over a common radius of influence. A novel algorithm for reconstructing streamflow using regularized canonical regression and inputs of local and global covariates is developed and applied over the Missouri River Basin, as a test case. Effectiveness in reconstruction is demonstrated with reconstructions showing periods where streamflow deficits may have been more severe than during recent droughts (e.g., the Civil War, Dust Bowl, and 1950s droughts). The maximum persistence of droughts and floods over the past 500 years far exceeds those observed in the instrumental record and periods of multidecadal variability in the 1500s and 1600s are detected. Challenges for an extension to a national streamflow reconstruction or applications using other gridded paleoclimate data sets such as adequate spatial coverage of streamflow and applicability of annual reconstructions are discussed.

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Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Cited by 149 publications

References 39 publications

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

New Zealand forest dynamics: a review of past and present vegetation responses to disturbance, and development of conceptual forest models

Can a paleodrought record be used to reconstruct streamflow?: A case study for the Missouri River Basin

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