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The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia.

See Letter to the Editor on this article by Adam et al., 26, 3756–3758. See also Response to the Letter by Bradstock et al., 26, e8–e9.

Aim Comparative analyses of fire regimes at large geographical scales can potentially identify ecological and climatic controls of fire. Here we describe Australia's broad fire regimes, and explore interrelationships and trade-offs between fire regime components. We postulate that fire regime patterns will be governed by trade-offs between moisture, productivity, fire frequency and fire intensity.Location Australia. MethodsWe reclassified a vegetation map of Australia, defining classes based on typical fuel and fire types. Classes were intersected with a climate classification to derive a map of 'fire regime niches'. Using expert elicitation and a literature search, we validated each niche and characterized typical and extreme fire intensities and return intervals. Satellite-derived active fire detections were used to determine seasonal patterns of fire activity.Results Fire regime characteristics are closely related to the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon activity. Frequent low-intensity fires occur in the monsoonal north, and infrequent, high-intensity fires in the temperate south, demonstrating a trade-off between frequency and intensity: that is, very highintensity fires are only associated with very low-frequency fire regimes in the high biomass eucalypt forests of southern Australia. While these forests occasionally experience extremely intense fires (> 50,000 kW m À1 ), such regimes are exceptional, with most of the continent dominated by grass fuels, typically burning with lower intensity (< 5000 kW m À1 ).Main conclusions Australia's fire regimes exhibit a coherent pattern of frequent, grass-fuelled fires in many differing vegetation types. While eucalypts are a quintessential Australian entity, their contribution as a dominant driver of high-intensity fire regimes, via their litter and bark fuels, is restricted to the forests of the continent's southern and eastern extremities. Our analysis suggests that the foremost driver of fire regimes at the continental scale is not productivity, as postulated conceptually, but the latitudinal gradient in summer monsoon rainfall activity.

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO 2) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth 1,2,3,4,5 , thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration 6. While evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO 2 fertilization effect on biomass growth 3,4,5 , it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO 2 in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands 7,8,9,10 , photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO 2 without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving an open question about the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO 2 4,5,7,8,9,10,11. Here, using data from the first ecosystemscale Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responds to four years of eCO 2 exposure. We show that, although the eCO 2 treatment of ambient +150 ppm (+38%) induced a 12% (+247 g C m-2 yr-1) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for ~50% of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO 2 , and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO 2 fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests. Main text Globally, forests act as a large carbon sink, absorbing a significant portion of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 1,12 , an ecosystem service that has tremendous social and

Canopy leaf area, quantified by the leaf area index (L), is a crucial driver of forest productivity, water use and energy balance. Because L responds to environmental drivers, it can represent an important feedback to climate change, but its responses to rising atmospheric [CO2] and water availability of forests have been poorly quantified. We studied canopy leaf area dynamics for 28 months in a native evergreen Eucalyptus woodland exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (the EucFACE experiment), in a subtropical climate where water limitation is common. We hypothesized that, because of expected stimulation of productivity and water-use efficiency, L should increase with elevated [CO2]. We estimated L from diffuse canopy transmittance, and measured monthly leaf litter production. Contrary to expectation, L did not respond to elevated [CO2]. We found that L varied between 1.10 and 2.20 across the study period. The dynamics of L showed a quick increase after heavy rainfall and a steady decrease during periods of low rainfall. Leaf litter production was correlated to changes in L, both during periods of decreasing L (when no leaf growth occurred) and during periods of increasing L (active shedding of old foliage when new leaf growth occurred). Leaf lifespan, estimated from mean L and total annual litter production, was up to 2 months longer under elevated [CO2] (1.18 vs. 1.01 years; P = 0.05). Our main finding that L was not responsive to elevated CO2 is consistent with other forest FACE studies, but contrasts with the positive response of L commonly predicted by many ecosystem models.