Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.

High propagule pressure is arguably the only consistent predictor of colonization success. More individuals enhance colonization success because they aid in overcoming demographic consequences of small population size (e.g. stochasticity and Allee effects). The number of founders can also have direct genetic effects: with fewer individuals, more inbreeding and thus inbreeding depression will occur, whereas more individuals typically harbour greater genetic variation. Thus, the demographic and genetic components of propagule pressure are interrelated, making it difficult to understand which mechanisms are most important in determining colonization success. We experimentally disentangled the demographic and genetic components of propagule pressure by manipulating the number of founders (fewer or more), and genetic background (inbred or outbred) of individuals released in a series of three complementary experiments. We used Bemisia whiteflies and released them onto either their natal host (benign) or a novel host (challenging). Our experiments revealed that having more founding individuals and those individuals being outbred both increased the number of adults produced, but that only genetic background consistently shaped net reproductive rate of experimental populations. Environment was also important and interacted with propagule size to determine the number of adults produced. Quality of the environment interacted also with genetic background to determine establishment success, with a more pronounced effect of inbreeding depression in harsh environments. This interaction did not hold for the net reproductive rate. These data show that the positive effect of propagule pressure on founding success can be driven as much by underlying genetic processes as by demographics. Genetic effects can be immediate and have sizable effects on fitness.

Highlights d The hihi has a low genetic diversity from genomic data compared to other birds d The heritability of a range of adaptive traits is inferred to be low to very low d The additive genetic variance of relative fitness is inferred to be very low d These results converge toward a strong lack of adaptive potential in the hihi Authors

Identifying the early warning signals of catastrophic extinctions has recently become a central focus for ecologists, but species’ functional responses to environmental changes remain an untapped source for the sharpening of such warning signals. Telomere length (TL) analysis represents a promising molecular tool with which to raise the alarm regarding early population decline, since telomere attrition is associated with aging processes and accelerates after a recurrent exposure to environmental stressors. In the southern margin of their range, populations of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) recently became extinct at lowest elevations due to changes in climate conditions. However, the proximal signals involved in these demographic declines are still unknown. Here, we sampled 100 yearling lizards from 10 natural populations (n = 10 per population) along an extinction risk gradient. Relative lizard abundance dramatically dropped over 12 years in low-altitude populations characterized by warmer ambient temperatures and higher body growth of lizards early in life. A non-linear relationship was found between TL and population extinction risk, with shorter telomeres in populations facing high risk of extinction when compared to non-threatened ones. Our results identify TL as a promising biomarker and imply that population extinctions might be preceded by a loop of physiological aging.

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Water conservation strategies are well documented in species living in water-limited environments, but physiological adaptations to water availability in temperate climate environments are still relatively overlooked. Yet, temperate species are facing more frequent and intense droughts as a result of climate change. Here, we examined variation in field hydration state (plasma osmolality) and standardized evaporative water loss rate (SEWL) of adult male and pregnant female common lizards (Zootoca vivipara) from 13 natural populations with contrasting air temperature, air humidity, and access to water. We found different patterns of geographic variation between sexes. Overall, males were more dehydrated (i.e. higher osmolality) than pregnant females, which likely comes from differences in field behaviour and water intake since the rate of SEWL was similar between sexes. Plasma osmolality and SEWL rate were positively correlated with environmental temperature in males, while plasma osmolality in pregnant females did not correlate with environmental conditions, reproductive stage or reproductive effort. The SEWL rate was significantly lower in populations without access to free standing water, suggesting that lizards can adapt or adjust physiology to cope with habitat dryness. Environmental humidity did not explain variation in water balance. We suggest that geographic variation in water balance physiology and behaviour should be taken account to better understand species range limits and sensitivity to climate change.

Substantial plastic variation in phenology in response to environmental heterogeneity through time in the same population has been uncovered in many species. However, our understanding of differences in reaction norms of phenology among populations from a given species remains limited. As the plasticity of phenological traits is often influenced by local thermal conditions, we expect local temperature to generate variation in the reaction norms between populations. Here, we explored temporal variation in parturition date across 11 populations of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) from four mountain chains as a function of air temperatures during mid-gestation. We characterized among-population variation to assess how local weather conditions (mean and variance of ambient temperatures during mid-gestation) and habitat openness (an index of anthropogenic disturbance) influence the thermal reaction norms of the parturition date. Our results provide evidence of interactive effects of anthropogenic disturbance and thermal conditions, with earlier parturition dates in warmer years on average especially in closed habitats. Variation in the reaction norms for parturition date was correlated with mean local thermal conditions at a broad geographical scale. However, populations exposed to variable thermal conditions had flatter thermal reaction norms. Assessing whether environmental heterogeneity drives differentiation among reaction norms is crucial to estimate the capacity of different populations to contend with projected climatic and anthropogenic challenges.

Climate change should lead to massive loss of biodiversity in most taxa, but the detailed physiological mechanisms underlying population extinction remain largely elusive so far. In vertebrates, baseline levels of hormones such as glucocorticoids (GCs) may be indicators of population state as their secretion to chronic stress can impair survival and reproduction. However, the relationship between GC secretion, climate change and population extinction risk remains unclear. In this study, we investigated whether levels of baseline corticosterone (the main GCs in reptiles) correlate with environmental conditions and associated extinction risk across wild populations of the common lizard Zootoca vivipara. First, we performed a cross-sectional comparison of baseline corticosterone levels along an altitudinal gradient among 14 populations. Then, we used a longitudinal study in eight populations to examine the changes in corticosterone levels following the exposure to a heatwave period. Unexpectedly, baseline corticosterone decreased with increasing thermal conditions at rest in females and was not correlated with extinction risk. In addition, baseline corticosterone levels decreased after exposure to an extreme heatwave period. This seasonal corticosterone decrease was more pronounced in populations without access to standing water. We suggest that low basal secretion of corticosterone may entail downregulating activity levels and limit exposure to adverse climatic conditions, especially to reduce water loss. These new insights suggest that rapid population decline might be preceded by a downregulation of the corticosterone secretion.