We examine whether low-paid jobs have an effect on the probability that unemployed persons obtain better-paid jobs in the future (springboard effect). We make use of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and apply a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model. Our results suggest that low-wage jobs can act as springboards to better-paid work. The improvement of the chance to obtain a high-wage job by accepting low-paid work is particularly large for less-skilled persons and for individuals who experienced longer periods of unemployment. Low-paid work is less beneficial if the job is associated with a low social status.
Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid, and higherpaid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for. Results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder, especially in the case of long-term unemployment (>360 days). Furthermore, the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low-paid jobs: individuals working in the initial period in a low-paid and higher-skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low-paid and low-skilled occupation.
I present the bireprob command, which fits a bivariate random-effects probit model. bireprob enables a researcher to estimate two (seemingly unrelated) nonlinear processes and to control for interrelations between their unobservables. The estimator uses quasirandom numbers (Halton draws) and maximum simulated likelihood to estimate the correlation between the error terms of both processes. The application of bireprob is illustrated in two examples: the first one uses artificial data, and the second one uses real data. Finally, in a simulation, the performance of the estimator is tested and compared with the official Stata command xtprobit.
Background
There are persistent ethnic gaps in uptake of child healthcare services in New Zealand (NZ), despite increasing policy to promote equitable access. We examined ethnic differences in the uptake of immunisation and primary healthcare services at different ages and quantified the contribution of relevant explanatory factors, in order to identify potential points of intervention.
Methods
We used data from the Growing Up in New Zealand birth cohort study, including children born between 2009 and 2010. Econometric approaches were used to explore underlying mechanisms behind ethnic differences in service uptake. Multivariable regression was used to adjust for mother, child, household, socioeconomic, mobility, and social factors. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the proportion of each ethnic gap that could be explained, as well as the main drivers behind the explained component. These analyses were repeated for four data time-points.
Results
Six thousand eight hundred twenty-two mothers were enrolled during the antenatal survey, and children were followed up at 9-months, 2-years and 4-years. In univariable models, there were ethnic gaps in uptake of immunisation and primary care services. After adjusting for covariates in multivariable models, compared to NZ Europeans, Asian and Pacific children had higher timeliness and completeness of immunisation at all time-points, while indigenous Māori had lower timeliness of first-year vaccines despite high intentions to immunise. Asian and Pacific mothers were less likely to have their first-choice lead maternity caregiver (LMC) than NZ Europeans mothers, and Māori and Asian mothers were less likely to be satisfied with their general practitioner (GP) at 2-years. Healthcare utilisation was strongly influenced by socio-economic, mobility and social factors including ethnic discrimination. In decomposition models comparing Māori to NZ Europeans, the strongest drivers for timely first-year immunisations and GP satisfaction (2-years) were household composition and household income. Gaps between Pacific and NZ Europeans in timely first-year immunisations and choice of maternity carer were largely unexplained by factors included in the models.
Conclusions
Ethnic gaps in uptake of child healthcare services vary by ethnicity, service, and time-point, and are driven by different factors. Addressing healthcare disparities will require interventions tailored to specific ethnic groups, as well as addressing underlying social determinants and structural racism. Gaps that remain unexplained by our models require further investigation.
Several studies have shown significant persistence in low pay, along with a greater probability of moving out of low pay and into higher pay in the future. Low-paid jobs are therefore often deemed stepping stones, rather than dead-ends. However, using point-in-time information past literature has usually only considered changes in labour market status at the annual level and not accounted for within-year changes of an individual's low pay position. Using population-wide administrative data with monthly earnings information, this study accounts for changes in an individual's low pay position and shows that attachment to the low pay sector is highly heterogeneous. The empirical evidence points to workers that have a strong attachment to the low pay sector facing a very high probability of staying low-paid employed; and the likelihood of their low pay jobs being stepping stones towards higher pay are found to be negligible.
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