We examine whether low-paid jobs have an effect on the probability that unemployed persons obtain better-paid jobs in the future (springboard effect). We make use of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and apply a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model. Our results suggest that low-wage jobs can act as springboards to better-paid work. The improvement of the chance to obtain a high-wage job by accepting low-paid work is particularly large for less-skilled persons and for individuals who experienced longer periods of unemployment. Low-paid work is less beneficial if the job is associated with a low social status.
Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid, and higherpaid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for. Results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder, especially in the case of long-term unemployment (>360 days). Furthermore, the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low-paid jobs: individuals working in the initial period in a low-paid and higher-skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low-paid and low-skilled occupation.
I present the bireprob command, which fits a bivariate random-effects probit model. bireprob enables a researcher to estimate two (seemingly unrelated) nonlinear processes and to control for interrelations between their unobservables. The estimator uses quasirandom numbers (Halton draws) and maximum simulated likelihood to estimate the correlation between the error terms of both processes. The application of bireprob is illustrated in two examples: the first one uses artificial data, and the second one uses real data. Finally, in a simulation, the performance of the estimator is tested and compared with the official Stata command xtprobit.
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