In this paper we present a probabilistic fast model for performance assessment of geothermal doublets for direct heat applications. It is a simple yet versatile and multipurpose tool. It can be well applied in better understanding the sensitivity of performance to key subsurface parameters and depth trends therein, and for assessing the probability of success for geothermal projects under technical and financial constraints.The underlying algorithms deliver a sensible accuracy given the uncertainties associated with geothermal projects at exploration state. A public release of the software, available under the name of DoubletCalc, is easy to handle and requires a limited set of input parameters. Thanks to an open source code, DoubletCalc can be implemented in other software applications and extended as it has been implemented for the integration into the national geothermal information system in the Netherlands (ThermoGIS, 2011).Apart from its application for site assessments, the tool can be integrated into automated workflows processing faster representations of key aquifer properties and capable to produce indicative maps for predicted doublet power, economic feasibility and prediction of cumulative amount of heat that can be recovered. These capabilities are specifically important for decision support for policymakers while assessing the effects of particular insurance schemes and funding mechanisms.DoubletCalc cannot and is not intended to substitute geologic exploration approaches. As exploration measures, such as seismic surveys are cost intensive, DoubletCalc can be used to focus geothermal exploration on areas and sites where an enhanced probability of success can be expected.
A resource assessment methodology has been developed to designate prospective high permeable clastic aquifers and to assess the amount of potential geothermal energy in the Netherlands. It builds from the wealth of deep subsurface data from oil and gas exploration and production which is publicly and digitally available. In the resource assessment various performance indicator maps have been produced for direct heat applications (greenhouse and spatial heating). These maps are based on detailed mapping of depth, thickness, porosity, permeability, temperature and transmissivity (methodology presented in other papers in this NJG issue). In the resource assessment analysis 14 lithostratigraphic units (clastic aquifers) have been considered, ranging in age from the Permian to the Cenozoic. Performance maps have been made which include a) the expected doublet power (MWth) to be retrieved; b) the number of houses or hectares that can be heated from one doublet; and c) a potential indicator map, which provides insight in subsurface suitability for specific applications from a techno-economic perspective. To obtain a nationwide overview of the resource potential in terms of recoverable geothermal energy, a progressive filtering approach was used from total heat content of the reservoirs (Heat In Place – HIP) via the heat that can potentially be recovered (Potential Recovery Heat – PRH) to energy maps taking into account a techno-economic performance evaluation (Recoverable Heat – RH). Results show that the HIP is approximately 820,000 PJ which is significantly more than previous estimates of around 90,000 PJ. This considerable increase in geothermal energy potential is the result of accurate geological mapping of key reservoir properties and the development of state-of-the-art techno-economic performance assessment tools that performs Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, for the previous estimates boundary conditions were set with the aim to compare the geothermal potential between different EU countries (Rijkers & Van Doorn, 1997). Taking into account techno-economic aspects, the RH is in the order of 85,000 PJ. This is equivalent to ~70% of the ultimate recoverable gas of the Slochteren Gas field. In total over 400 maps have been created or used as input for the resource assessment. Together, they provide comprehensive information for geothermal energy development from various stakeholder perspectives. The maps can be interactively assessed in the web-based portal ThermoGIS (www.thermogis.nl). This application complements existing subsurface information systems available in the Netherlands and supports the geothermal community in assessing the feasibility of a geothermal system on a regional scale.
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