The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and fi nance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the Internet at the following website: http://www.bde.es. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of economic and economic policy uncertainty from Spain. We distinguish between the relative merits of different types of measures based on: (i) the volatility of fi nancial markets; (ii) economic analysts' disagreement; (iii) economic policy uncertainty. We show that the fi rst and the third block of measures are the most relevant to grasp the negative effects of unexpected changes in uncertainty on aggregate economic developments, as measured by real GDP. In addition, we fi nd that economic policy uncertainty and fi nancial uncertainty shocks produce visible negative effects on private consumption. The negative responses on capital goods investments are initially bigger in magnitude but vanish more quickly.
for their comments and suggestions. We also thank all participants at the internal seminar of the Banco de España for their comments. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de España or the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).
for their comments and suggestions. We also thank all participants at the internal seminar of the Banco de España for their comments. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de España or the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.