We examine whether Google’s search volume indices help economic agents with real-time predictions about the checked-in and overnight stays of travellers in Spain. Using a dynamic factor approach and a real-time database of vintages that reproduces the exact information that was available to a forecaster at each particular point in time, we show that the models, including Google’s query volume indices, outperform models that exclude these leading indicators. In this way, we are the first in finding conclusive evidence that tourism-related queries help to improve tourism forecast in Spain. Our finding is of significance in this literature, since Spain is one of the world’s top tourism destinations and extremely depends on tourism.
for their comments and suggestions. We also thank all participants at the internal seminar of the Banco de España for their comments. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de España or the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).
for their comments and suggestions. We also thank all participants at the internal seminar of the Banco de España for their comments. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de España or the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).
Se caracterizan los ciclos económicos regionales en España utilizando series mensuales de afiliados a la Seguridad Social. Con base en un conjunto de modelos de cadenas de Markov, se encuentra evidencia substancial de sincronización entre los ciclos económicos de las distintas regiones, la cual se ha incrementado desde la Gran Recesión. También se encuentra evidencia de patrones de retraso o adelantamiento en la transmisión de los ciclos, los cuales se repiten a largo de las distintas recesiones. En general, las primeras señales de una recesión regional comienzan a verse en las Islas y en la Comunidad Valenciana, y se propagan desde la periferia hacia el centro. Asimismo, las regiones del noroeste tardan más tiempo en comenzar a recuperarse.
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