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BackgroundRegime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins.Principal FindingsIn this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.ConclusionsOur results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

We used a process-oriented model (Ecosim) to characterize changes in marine resources in the north-central (NC) Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean) from 1975 to 2002, and to explore the extent to which these changes were driven by trophic interactions, environment and fishing. Fishing efforts and fishing mortalities were used to drive the ecosystem model, and available biomass and catch data were compared to the model predictions. We calibrated and assessed the fit of the model using the sum of the squared deviations of the observed and predicted biomass values. Trophodynamic indicators were then calculated and used to analyse changes to the ecosystem. Trophic interactions, fishing, and environmental conditions were important driving factors of the ecosystem. Predictions from the model adequately matched observed biomass and catch data for each year. Observed trends and predicted data for biomasses decreased with time for several species, including Norway lobster, hake, red mullets, flatfish, and anchovy. The environmental functions resulting from the fitting procedure predicted that primary production and nutrients increased beyond the baseline from 1975 level, and then showed a decrease. They were negatively correlated with mean sea surface temperature and positively correlated with the Mediterranean Oscillation Index. Our results suggested that the NC Adriatic ecosystem became more degraded over time due to expanding fishing effort, bottom-up effects, and climatic anomalies. Possible mechanisms involved are discussed. Comparing our findings with descriptions of the south Catalan Sea ecosystem showed certain similarities between these 2 Mediterranean ecosystems and revealed unique features of the Adriatic Sea.

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Abstract. Given the great overfishing of the demersal resources in the Northern Adriatic Sea (geographical sub-area [GSA] 17), along with the fishing pressure in marine habitats, evidence strongly supports the need to evaluate appropriate management approaches. Several fishing activities operate simultaneously in the area, and the need to minimize conflicts among them is also a social concern. We applied a spatially and temporally explicit fish and fisheries model to assess the impact of a suite of spatial plans suggested by practitioners that could reduce the pressure on the four demersal stocks of high commercial interest in the GSA 17 and that could promote space sharing between mutually exclusive activities. We found that excluding trawlers from some areas has lowered the effective fishing effort, resulting in some economic losses but providing benefit to the set netters. Not every simulated fishing vessel is impacted in the same way because some fishing communities experienced different economic opportunities, particularly when a 6-nautical mile buffer zone from the coast was implemented in the vicinity of important fishing grounds. Along this buffer zone, the four stocks were only slightly benefiting from the protection of the area and from fewer discards. In contrast, assuming a change in the ability of the population to disperse led to a large effect: Some fish became accessible in the coastal waters, therefore increasing the landings for rangelimited fishers, but the discard rate of fish also increased, greatly impairing the long-term biomass levels. Our evaluation, however, confirmed that no effort is displaced onto vulnerable benthic habitats and to grounds not suitable for the continued operation of fishing. We conclude that the tested spatial management is helpful, but not sufficient to ensure sustainable fishing in the area, and therefore, additional management measures should be taken. Our test platform investigates the interaction between fish and fisheries at a fine geographical scale and simulates data for varying fishing methods and from different harbor communities in a unified framework. We contribute to the development of effective science-based inputs to facilitate policy improvement and better governance while evaluating trade-offs in fisheries management and marine spatial planning.

SUMMARY:Analytical stock assessment of sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Walb.) in the Adriatic Sea from 1975 to 1999 was performed taking into account the occurrence of discarding at sea of sardine caught by the Italian fleet. We have attempted to model the fishermen's behaviour using data collected by an observer on board fishing vessels. This enabled us to estimate the amounts of discards, which were added to the catches landed, collected by ISMAR-CNR Ancona. Discards were calculated for the period 1987-1999, as their values were negligible before 1987. Stock assessment on the entire data series from 1975-1999 was carried out by means of Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Discarding behaviour differs among ports due to different local customs and market conditions. The quantity added to the annual total catch ranged from 900 tonnes to 4000 tonnes, corresponding to between 2% and 15% of the total corrected catch. VPAs indicated that mid-year sardine stock biomass rose steadily from 400,000 tonnes in 1975 to a peak of 950,000 tonnes in 1984. Subsequently, biomass declined steadily to the more recent values, around 300,000 tonnes. Although discarded quantities were relatively high, their influence on stock assessment was not strong because of the high level of both catch and, in particular, estimated biomass at sea.Keywords: sardine, Adriatic Sea, discards, observer data, regression tree models, stock assessment, population dynamics methods, Virtual Population Analysis (VPA).RESUMEN: EVALUACIÓN DEL ESTOC DE SARDINA DEL MAR ADRIÁTICO (SARDINA PILCHARDUS WALB.), ESTIMANDO LOS DES-CARTES. -Se realizó una evaluación analítica del estock de sardina (Sardina pilchardus, Walb.) del mar Adriático, desde 1975 a 1990, considerando los descartes de sardina realizados por la flota italiana. Se ha intentado modelar el comportamiento de los pescadores utilizando los datos recogidos por un observador a bordo de los barcos de pesca. Ello nos ha permitido estimar las cantidades descartadas y añadirlas posteriormente a los datos de desembarcos recogidos por ISMAR-CNR Ancona. Se calcularon los descartes para el período 1987-1999, ya que los valores eran insignificantes antes de 1987. Se realizó la evaluación del estock de sardina por medio del Análisis de Poblaciones Virtuales (VPA), aplicándolo a toda la serie de datos desde 1975 a 1999. El comportamiento en el descarte varía entre puertos debido a las diferentes costumbres locales y a las condiciones de mercado. La cantidad añadida a la captura total anual varía entre 900 y 4.000 toneladas, que corresponden al 2% y 15% respectivamente, del total de la captura corregida. Los VPAs indican que la biomasa del estock de sardina aumentó de manera constante de 400.000 toneladas en 1975 a un máximo de 950.000 toneladas en 1984. Posteriormente, la biomasa disminuyó de forma continuada hasta alcanzar valores aproximados de 300.000 toneladas en la actualidad. Aunque las cantidades descartadas fueron relativamente altas, su influencia en la evaluación del estock de sardina no parece ser importan...