Possible changes in the tropical cyclones in a future, greenhouse-warmed climate are investigated using a 20 km-mesh, high-resolution, global atmospheric model of MRI/JMA, with the analyses focused on the evaluation of the frequency and wind intensity. Two types of 10-year climate experiments are conducted. One is a present-day climate experiment, and the other is a greenhouse-warmed climate experiment, with a forcing of higher sea surface temperature and increased greenhouse-gas concentration. A comparison of the experiments suggests that the tropical cyclone frequency in the warm-climate experiment is globally reduced by about 30% (but increased in the North Atlantic) compared to the presentday-climate experiment. Furthermore, the number of intense tropical cyclones increases. The maximum surface wind speed for the most intense tropical cyclone generally increases under the greenhousewarmed condition (by 7.3 m s À1 in the Northern Hemisphere and by 3.3 m s À1 in the Southern Hemisphere). On average, these findings suggest the possibility of higher risks of more devastating tropical cyclones across the globe in a future greenhouse-warmed climate.

Twelve large-eddy simulations, with a wide range of microphysical representations, are compared to each other and to independent measurements. The measurements and the initial and forcing data for the simulations are taken from the undisturbed period of the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field study. A regional downscaling of meteorological analyses is performed so as to provide forcing data consistent with the measurements. The ensemble average of the simulations plausibly reproduces many features of the observed clouds, including the vertical structure of cloud fraction, profiles of cloud and rain water, and to a lesser degree the population density of rain drops. The simulations do show considerable departures from one another in the representation of the cloud microphysical structure and the ensuant surface precipitation rates, increasingly so for the more simplified microphysical models. There is a robust tendency for simulations that develop rain to produce a shallower, somewhat more stable cloud layer. Relations between cloud cover and precipitation are ambiguous.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a massive weather event consisting of deep convection coupled with atmospheric circulation, moving slowly eastward over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Despite its enormous influence on many weather and climate systems worldwide, it has proven very difficult to simulate an MJO because of assumptions about cumulus clouds in global meteorological models. Using a model that allows direct coupling of the atmospheric circulation and clouds, we successfully simulated the slow eastward migration of an MJO event. Topography, the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, and interplay between eastward- and westward-propagating signals controlled the timing of the eastward transition of the convective center. Our results demonstrate the potential making of month-long MJO predictions when global cloud-resolving models with realistic initial conditions are used.

The influence of the global warming on tropical cyclones has been examined using a high resolution AGCM. Two ten-year integrations were performed with the JMA global model at T106 horizontal resolution. For the control experiment, the observed SST for the period 1979-1988 is prescribed, while for the doubling CO2 (2 Â CO2) experiment, SST anomaly due to the global warming estimated from a coupled model transient CO2 experiment (Tokioka et al. 1995) is added to the SST used in the control experiment.The results of experiments show that a significant reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones is possible in response to the greenhouse gas-induced global warming. The most significant decrease is indicated over the North Pacific. On the other hand, a considerable increase in tropical cyclone frequency is indicated for the North Atlantic. As for the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, no significant change has been noted.It has been found that the regional change in tropical cyclone frequency is closely related to the distribution of the SST anomaly, and the change in convective activity associated with it. The results of the experiment indicate that the change in tropical cyclogenesis is strongly controlled by dynamical factors associated with the change in SST distribution, rather than the thermodynamical factors associated with the change in absolute value of local SST.On the other hand, for the decrease in the global total number of tropical cyclones on doubling CO2, a weakening of tropical circulation associated with the stabilization of the atmosphere (the increase in dry static stability), seems to be responsible. It is found that the rate of increase in the tropical precipitation due to the global warming is much less than the rate of increase in the atmospheric moisture. With this little increase in precipitation (convective heating), a considerable increase in the dry static stability of the atmosphere leads to a weakening of the tropical circulation.

This article reviews the development of a global non-hydrostatic model, focusing on the pioneering research of the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). Very high resolution global atmospheric circulation simulations with horizontal mesh spacing of approximately O (km) were conducted using recently developed supercomputers. These types of simulations were conducted with a specifically designed atmospheric global model based on a quasi-uniform grid mesh structure and a non-hydrostatic equation system. This review describes the development of each dynamical and physical component of NICAM, the assimilation strategy and its related models, and provides a scientific overview of NICAM studies conducted to date.

A global atmospheric general circulation model, with the horizontal grid size of about 20 km, has been developed, making use of the Earth Simulator, the fastest computer available at present for meteorological applications. We examine the model's performance of simulating the present-day climate from small scale through global scale by time integrations of over 10 years, using a climatological sea surface temperature.Global distributions of the seasonal mean precipitation, surface air temperature, geopotential height, zonal-mean wind and zonal-mean temperature agree well with the observations, except for an excessive amount of global precipitation, and warm bias in the tropical upper troposphere. This model improves the representation of regional-scale phenomena and local climate, by increasing horizontal resolution due to better representation of topographical effects and physical processes, with keeping the quality of representation of global climate. The model thus enables us to study global characteristics of small-scale phenomena and extreme events in unprecedented detail.

No abstract

Possible changes in the Asian summer monsoon due to increased atmospheric CO2 are investigated by an MRI global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall in India increases significantly with global warming. On the other hand, the monsoon wind shear index, defined as the difference between 850 hPa and 200 hPa zonal winds over the northern Indian Ocean, decreases. At 850 hPa, the westerly wind shifts northward and intensifies from the Sahel to northwest of India, but the monsoon westerly over the Arabian Sea weakens. It is found that increased moisture content in the warmer air leads to larger moisture flux convergence, contributing to the increased rainfall. Therefore, the monsoon wind shear index is not a good indicator for identifying any change of monsoon accompanying global warming. In contrast to the increased rainfall in India, change in rainfall is little over China where soil moisture becomes drier at times of increased CO2. It is also noted that the northern Eurasian continent becomes wetter in the increased-CO2 climate.The magnitude of the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall becomes larger in the CO2 experiment than in the control experiment, particularly in the later stage of the experiment after CO2 doubling. However it should be noted that the interdecadal variation of this interannual variability is also large both in the control and the CO2 experiments.