Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20 km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses

Oouchi, Kazuyoshi; Yoshimura, Jun; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Mizuta, Ryo; Kusunoki, Shoji; Noda, Akira

doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.259

Cited by 509 publications

(449 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Oouchi et al (2006) found a general increase in the most intense hurricanes and a decrease in weaker ones for a time-slice simulation forced by current and future surface temperatures and greenhouse gases; similar findings were made by Bengtsson et al (2007). Bender et al (2010) examined the potential climate changes in North Atlantic hurricanes using two versions of the GFDL hurricane model as a downscaling tool applied to tropical cyclones generated in the GFDL climate model.…”

Section: Comparison With Model Simulationssupporting

confidence: 59%

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

2013

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An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference between the means of ensembles of climate simulations with and without anthropogenic gases and aerosols. This index indicates that the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades, which enables improved confidence in assessing hurricane changes as it removes many of the data issues from previous eras. We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of *25-30 % per°C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins. The observed increase in Category 4-5 hurricanes may not continue at the same rate with future global warming. The analysis suggests that following an initial climate increase in intense hurricane proportions a saturation level will be reached beyond which any further global warming will have little effect.

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Section: Comparison With Model Simulationssupporting

confidence: 59%

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

2013

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“…The location of the tropical cyclone MAWAR in the observations is derived from the JMA best track data. Detection of the tropical cyclone in the simulations is based on the criteria shown in Oouchi et al (2006). In the observation (Figs.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Impact of a Tropical Cyclone on the Northward Migration of the Baiu Frontal Zone

Yamaura

Kajikawa

Tomita

et al. 2013

SOLA

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The impact of a tropical cyclone on the northward migration of the Baiu frontal zone (BFZ) is investigated in the case of the tropical cyclone MAWAR (2012) using a global cloud-system resolving model, called NICAM. From 4 to 6 June in 2012, the BFZ rapidly shifts northward with MAWAR. A simulation with the initial data of 29 May reproduces the northward migration of the BFZ and the tropical cyclone. Strong southerlies on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone transport moist and high-temperature air into the BFZ. This horizontal advection affects the northward migration of the BFZ. In contrast, the BFZ stagnates to the south of Japan in another simulation with the initial data of 30 May because the tropical cyclone track is diverted eastward. Thus, realistic reproducibility of a tropical cyclone is needed for better simulations and prediction of the BFZ migration.(Citation: Yamaura, T., Y. Kajikawa, H. Tomita, and M. Satoh, 2013: Possible impact of a tropical cyclone on the northward migration of the Baiu frontal zone. SOLA, 9, 89−93,

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“…There is still an uncertainty about the future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity [Oouchi et al, 2006;Yoshimura et al, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2006]. Coarse resolution GCMs are not able to represent typical inner structures of tropical cyclones which results in underestimation of intensities [e.g., Krishnamurti et al, 1989;Camargo and Sobel, 2004].…”

Section: Predicted Future Changes In Cyclone Frequency and Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coarse resolution GCMs are not able to represent typical inner structures of tropical cyclones which results in underestimation of intensities [e.g., Krishnamurti et al, 1989;Camargo and Sobel, 2004]. Thus the predictions of Oouchi et al [2006], which were obtained with a 20 km resolution GCM may be more reliable. However, it is to be noted that the simulation time period was limited to 10 a for both present-day and future conditions.…”

Section: Predicted Future Changes In Cyclone Frequency and Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attempts have begun to run GCMs with finer horizontal resolutions owing to increased computing power. For example, Oouchi et al [2006] have simulated strong pressure gradients and intense warm cores in tropical cyclones. However, as in the previous RCM studies, the intensity of strong hurricanes is underestimated.…”

Section: Predicted Future Changes In Cyclone Frequency and Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature

Semmler¹,

Varghese²,

McGrath³

et al. 2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] The influence of an increased sea surface temperature (SST) on the frequency and intensity of cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated using two data sets from simulations with the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3. The model domain comprises large parts of the North Atlantic and the adjacent continents. RCA3 is driven by reanalysis data for May to December 1985-2000 at the lateral and lower boundaries, using SST and lateral boundary temperatures. A realistic interannual variation in tropical storm and hurricane counts is simulated. In an idealized sensitivity experiment, SSTs and boundary condition temperatures at all levels are increased by 1 K to ensure that we can distinguish the SST from other factors influencing the development of cyclones. An increase in the count of strong hurricanes is simulated. There is not much change in the location of hurricanes. Generally weaker changes are seen in the extratropical region and for the less extreme events. Increases of 9% in the count of extratropical cyclones and 39% in the count of tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at least 18 m/s are found.

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Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20 km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses

Cited by 509 publications

References 34 publications

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

Possible Impact of a Tropical Cyclone on the Northward Migration of the Baiu Frontal Zone

Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature

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