Twelve large-eddy simulations, with a wide range of microphysical representations, are compared to each other and to independent measurements. The measurements and the initial and forcing data for the simulations are taken from the undisturbed period of the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field study. A regional downscaling of meteorological analyses is performed so as to provide forcing data consistent with the measurements. The ensemble average of the simulations plausibly reproduces many features of the observed clouds, including the vertical structure of cloud fraction, profiles of cloud and rain water, and to a lesser degree the population density of rain drops. The simulations do show considerable departures from one another in the representation of the cloud microphysical structure and the ensuant surface precipitation rates, increasingly so for the more simplified microphysical models. There is a robust tendency for simulations that develop rain to produce a shallower, somewhat more stable cloud layer. Relations between cloud cover and precipitation are ambiguous.

Shallow, maritime cumuli are ubiquitous over much of the tropical oceans, and characterizing their properties is important to understanding weather and climate. The Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field campaign, which took place during November 2004–January 2005 in the trades over the western Atlantic, emphasized measurements of processes related to the formation of rain in shallow cumuli, and how rain subsequently modifies the structure and ensemble statistics of trade wind clouds. Eight weeks of nearly continuous S-band polarimetric radar sampling, 57 flights from three heavily instrumented research aircraft, and a suite of ground- and ship-based instrumentation provided data on trade wind clouds with unprecedented resolution. Observational strategies employed during RICO capitalized on the advances in remote sensing and other instrumentation to provide insight into processes that span a range of scales and that lie at the heart of questions relating to the cause and effects of rain from shallow maritime cumuli.

The mechanisms that govern the response of shallow cumulus, such as found in the trade wind regions, to a warming of the atmosphere in which large-scale atmospheric processes act to keep relative humidity constant are explored. Two robust effects are identified. First, and as is well known, the liquid water lapse rate increases with temperature and tends to increase the amount of water in clouds, making clouds more reflective of solar radiation. Second, and less well appreciated, the surface fluxes increase with the saturation specific humidity, which itself is a strong function of temperature. Using large-eddy simulations it is shown that the liquid water lapse rate acts as a negative feedback: a positive temperature increase driven by radiative forcing is reduced by the increase in cloud water and hence cloud albedo. However, this effect is more than compensated by a reduction of cloudiness associated with the deepening and relative drying of the boundary layer, driven by larger surface moisture fluxes. Because they are so robust, these effects are thought to underlie changes in the structure of the marine boundary layer as a result of global warming.

Clouds over the ocean, particularly throughout the tropics, are poorly understood and drive much of the uncertainty in model-based projections of climate change. In early 2010, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology established the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) on the windward edge of Barbados. At 13°N the BCO samples the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), from the well-developed winter trades dominated by shallow cumulus to the transition to deep convection as the ITCZ migrates northward during boreal summer. The BCO is also well situated to observe the remote meteorological impact of Saharan dust and biomass burning. In its first six years of operation, and through complementary intensive observing periods using the German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the BCO has become a cornerstone of efforts to understand the relationship between cloudiness, circulation, and climate change.

In the North Atlantic trades, variations in the distribution of low-level cloud are rich. Using two years of observations from a remote-sensing site located on the east coast of Barbados, the vertical distribution of cloud and its contribution to low-level cloud amount are explored. The vertical distribution of first-detected cloud-base heights is marked by a strong peak near the lifting condensation level (LCL) from passive optically thin shallow cumuli. Cloud with a base near this level dominates the total cloud cover with a contribution of about two-thirds. The other one-third comes from cloud with its cloud base further aloft at heights > 1 km, such as cumulus edges or stratiform cloud below the trade inversion. Cloud found aloft, regardless of where its base is located, contains more variance, in particular near the inversion and on time-scales longer than a day. In turn, cloud near the LCL is surprisingly invariant on longer time-scales, although consistent with existing theories. Because this component does not systematically vary, changes in cloud cover in response to changes in meteorology or climate may be limited to changes in its contribution from cloud aloft.

Quantitative estimates of precipitation in a typical undisturbed trade wind region are derived from 2 months of radar reflectivity data and compared to the meteorological environment determined from soundings, surface flux, and airborne-lidar data. Shallow precipitation was ubiquitous, covering on average about 2% of the region and contributing to at least half of the total precipitation. Echo fractions on the scale of the radar domain range between 0% and 10% and vary greatly within a period from a few hours to a day. Variability in precipitation relates most strongly to variability in humidity and the zonal wind speed, although greater inversion heights and deeper clouds are also evident at times of more rain. The analysis herein suggests that subtle fluctuations in both the strength of the easterlies and in subsidence play a major role in regulating humidity and hence precipitation, even within a given meteorological regime (here, the undisturbed trades).

Using highly resolved large-eddy simulations on two different domain sizes, we investigate the influence of precipitation and spatial organization on the thermodynamic structure of the trade-wind layer, under a uniform 4 K warming at constant relative humidity. In nonprecipitating simulations, the increased surface latent heat flux in the warmer climate produces a deeper and drier cloud layer with reduced cloud fractions between 1.5 and 4 km. Precipitation prevents the deepening and drying of the cloud layer in response to warming. Cloud fractions still decrease in the upper cloud layer, because stratiform outflow layers near cloud tops are less pronounced and because the larger liquid water contents are confined to narrower updrafts. Simulations on a 16-fold larger domain lead to the spatial organization of clouds into larger and deeper cloud clusters. The presence of deeper clouds results in a shallower, warmer, and drier trade-wind layer, with strongly reduced cloud cover. The warming response in the precipitating largedomain simulation nevertheless remains similar to the small-domain precipitating simulation. On the large domain, deeper clouds can also develop without precipitation, because moisture-convection feedbacks strengthen in the absence of cold-pool dynamics. Overall, total cloud cover and albedo decrease only slightly with warming in all cases. This demonstrates the robustness of shallow cumuli-in particular of cloud fraction near the lifting condensation level-to changes in the large-scale environment.

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. 123Surv Geophys (2017) 38:1529-1568 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9428-0 cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of tradecumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air-sea interactions and convective organization.