The Effect of Climate Change on Hydrometeorological Disasters in Cisarua District -Bogor Regency]. Hydrometeorological events dominated disasters in Indonesia from 2010 to 2020, such as floods, cyclones, and landslides. The hydrometeorological catastrophe cannot be separated from the consequences of climate change. Cisarua District, one of the areas in Bogor Regency, is at risk for hydrometeorological disasters. On the other hand, tourism and settlement development are increasing. The purpose of this study was to look into the effect of climate change on hydrometeorological disasters in Cisarua District, Bogor Regency. This study employs a qualitative methodology. The data used were primary data from informant interviews and secondary data from data/information from relevant agencies and literature studies. This study indicates changes in temperature in Cisarua District -Bogor Regency during the last ten years, namely 0.61ºC. It is still within normal limits compared to international standards issued by the Framework Convention on Climate Change of the United Nations, namely the maximum increase in earth temperature 1.5ºC. Rainfall there is classified as moderate. However, the trend of hydrometeorological disasters there tends to increase. This study concludes that climate change during the last ten years in the Cisarua District affects the number of hydrometeorological disasters, especially landslides, floods, flash floods, and tornadoes. Activities are being made to lessen the danger of hydrometeorological disasters have also been carried out, including increasing community capacity and optimizing disaster-resilient villages.
Climat change (CC) which contributed to increased conflict/war had implicitly emerged in the IPCC’s 3rd and 4th reports (IPCC, 2001; 2007); meanwhile on the 5th report (IPCC, 2014) emphasized more on human security. The risk/impact of CC to human security was shown through interaction between livelihood, conflict, culture, and migration. The purpose of the stydy was to gained an understanding of the correlation between CC and the occurrence of conflict/war; knowing the impacts of CC on national resilience; explaining the phenomenon of CC on national resilience; and explained the linkages between human security and national resilience.This research was done through conceptual and comparative approach.The results showed that CC did not contribute directly to the occurrence of conflict/war;the impact of CC disrupts people's livelihoods thereby reducing national resilience; CC could be viewed as a disturbance and/or threat; and basically national resilience and human security could be synchronized because both of them seeked to brought guarantee for the security, safety, and individual prosperity.ABSTRAK Perubahan iklim (PI) diasumsikan berkontribusi terhadap meningkatnya konflik/perang. Pandangan tersebut secara implisit telah muncul dalam laporan Panel Antarpemerintah tentang Perubahan Iklim(IPCC)ke-3 (IPCC TAR, 2001) dan ke-4 (IPCC AR4, 2007); sebaliknya pada laporan ke-5 (IPCC AR5, 2014) memfokuskan pada keamanan manusia. Skema risiko PI pada keamanan manusia ditunjukkan melalui interaksi antara mata pencaharian, konflik, budaya, dan migrasi. Penelitian ini untuk menjelaskan korelasi antara PI dengan terjadinya konflik/perang; menggambarkan dampak PI bagi ketahanan nasional (Tannas); menjelaskan isu PI ditinjau dari konsepTannas; dan menjelaskan keterkaitan antara keamanan manusia dengan Tannas. Penelitian dilakukan melalui dua pendekatan, yaitu: pendekatan konseptual dan pendekatan komparatif. Diperoleh hasil bahwa PI tidak berkorelasi langsung terhadap terjadinya konflik/perang; PI mengganggu mata pencaharian masyarakat, sehingga menurunkan Tannas; dalam konsep Tannas, PI merupakan gangguan dan atau ancaman; dan Tannas dapat disetarakan dengan keamanan manusia karena keduanya berupaya menghadirkan penjaminan keamanan, keselamatan, dan kesejahteraan individu.
[Estimation of The Threat of Earthquake and Tsunami in Pidie Jaya Regency to Support National Security]. Bencana merupakan suatu ancaman non-militer dan nyata yang dihadapi dunia saat ini. Bencana mengancam keselamatan masyarakat yang pada akhirnya mengancam keamanan nasional suatu negara, termasuk Indonesia. Ancaman nyata yang saat ini dirasakan oleh masyarakat Indonesia adalah peningkatan kejadian bencana yang dirasakan hampir diseluruh wilayah Indonesia. Kabupaten Pidie Jaya yang merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Aceh juga memiliki ancaman multi bencana seperti gempabumi dan tsunami. Gempabumi yang terjadi di Pidie Jaya disebabkan oleh aktivitas Sesar Pidie dengan arah bidang patahan mendatar atau strike-slipe. Selain itu, terdapat Zona Megathrust Sumatera dan Sesar Besar Sumatera yang berada di Provinsi Aceh dengan aktivitas kegempaan yang dapat berpotensi tsunami. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan suatu simulasi tsunami dengan output wilayah-wilayah yang berpotensi tsunami berserta run up atau ketinggian air tsunami akibat gempa di Zona Megathrust Aceh-Andaman. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif (deskriptif analisis) sebagai desain penelitian. Penelitian dilakukan pada 18 Maret 2021 di ruang operasional InaTEWS (Indonesia Tsunami Warning System) Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) menggunakan bantuan software TOAST (Tsunami Observation and Simulation Terminal). Dari seluruh rangkaian pengolahan dan analisis data didapatkan hasil bahwa Zona Megathrust Aceh-Andaman berpotensi tsunami dengan run up (ketinggian air tsunami) yang paling tertinggi sebesar 10,5 meter di Meulaboh, Kab. Aceh Barat, 5,5 meter di Kota Sabang, dan 3 meter di Kabupaten Pidie Jaya dengan waktu tiba tsunami (golden time) sekitar 24 menit 55 detik. Kajian atas estimasi gempabumi dan tsunami ini dapat dijadikan sebagai sumber informasi dalam penentuan kebijakan BPBD Pidie Jaya dalam upaya mitigasi bencana untuk melindungi masyarakat Pidie Jaya dan mewujudkan keamanan nasional.
The development and progression in humankind’s understanding of the world and life, ensured a continuous evolution in the response to events threatening our livelihoods. Humankind also developed techniques to deal with natural hazards, either by aiming to contain the forces of nature, or by altering human own behavior. The humanitarian assistance and disaster relief are crucially important in order to protect the nations. This research employed literature review method. The results showed that every nation should prepare and manage their capabilities in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), both in protection for own countries or in providing aids for the others. Military Operation Other Than War (MOOTW) does not involve the use or threat of violence but prioritizes the provision of HADR. In MOOTW, military forces synergize with other institutions/organizations, especially those related to diplomacy, economy, government, even politics and religion. Moreover, in handling disasters, especially in Indonesia, the combination between civilians and the military is crucial in realizing Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) and Civil-Military Coordination (CMCoord). Under certain mechanism, the military power is only used to support civilian institution in HADR.
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