The seasonal potential predictability of monsoon onset during the August–December season over Indonesia is studied through analysis of the spatial coherence of daily station rainfall and gridded pentad precipitation data from 1979 to 2005. The onset date, defined using a local agronomic definition, exhibits a seasonal northwest-to-southeast progression from northern and central Sumatra (late August) to Timor (mid-December). South of the equator, interannual variability of the onset date is shown to consist of a spatially coherent large-scale component, together with local-scale noise. The high spatial coherence of onset is similar to that of the September–December seasonal total, while postonset amounts averaged over 15–90 days and September–December amount residuals from large-scale onset show much less spatial coherence, especially across the main islands of monsoonal Indonesia. The cumulative rainfall anomalies exhibit also their largest amplitudes before or near the onset date. This implies that seasonal potential predictability over monsoonal Indonesia during the first part of the austral summer monsoon season is largely associated with monsoon onset, and that there is much less predictability within the rainy season itself. A cross-validated canonical correlation analysis using July sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (20°S–20°N, 80°–280°E) as predictors of local-scale onset dates exhibits promising hindcast skill (anomaly correlation of ∼0.80 for the spatial average of standardized rain gauges and ∼0.70 for standardized gridded pentad precipitation data).
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, whilst holding development goals paramount in context of national circumstances. In the lead up to COP21, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed and policy-relevant country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and ratcheting of ambition.
Thoha AS, Saharjo BH, Boer R, Ardiansyah M. 2019. Characteristics and causes of forest and land fires in Kapuas District, Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 20: 110-117. Forest and land fire occurs almost every year in Indonesia. Its impact is very harmful for human and environment. Developing a program in fire management requires identification of forest and land fire characteristics and its causes. The aim of this research was to evaluate the characteristics and causes of forest and land fire in Kapuas District Central Kalimantan Province. Spatial analysis of hotspots with rainfall was used to determine temporal distribution of fire. Spatial distribution between hotspot and causative factors was determined to identify spatial characteristics of fires. Increasing number of hotspots occurs when monthly rainfall decreases. Most high fire activities are located in peatland, swamp shrubs, close to road, close to river and far away from villages. Fire causes from human activities mostly originated from swamp shrub burning and land clearing for farming. Hotspot density has various relationship with peat depth, land cover, accessibility, and human activities.
KM3NeT is a research infrastructure located in the Mediterranean Sea, that will consist of two deep-sea Cherenkov neutrino detectors. With one detector (ARCA), the KM3NeT Collaboration aims at identifying and studying TeV–PeV astrophysical neutrino sources. With the other detector (ORCA), the neutrino mass ordering will be determined by studying GeV-scale atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The first KM3NeT detection units were deployed at the Italian and French sites between 2015 and 2017. In this paper, a description of the detector is presented, together with a summary of the procedures used to calibrate the detector in-situ. Finally, the measurement of the atmospheric muon flux between 2232–3386 m seawater depth is obtained.
Frost at anthesis of wheat reduces grain set. Characteristics of frost in a large section of the wheat belt of one Australian state (N.S.W.) are described. Using cluster analysis, the region can be divided into four homogeneous areas according to five general characteristics of frost. These characteristics are the mean Julian day of first and last frost, the mean number of frost days, the proportion of single-day frosts (days on which a frost did not occur on the following day) from August to October and the proportion of frost free periods from August to October of less than 5 days' duration.All these characteristics were found to,be closely related to altitude in all areas, but not to latitude or longitude. Within each area, regression equations were developed which explained at least 87% of the variation in four of the general characteristics. Thus, altitude appears to be a useful predictor for these characteristics.The validity of each equation was tested using three independent data sets. The mean percentage errors for the mean Julian day of first and last frost and the proportion of single-day frosts from August to October were 5, 5 and 8% respectively. Errors for the mean number of frost days and proportion of frost free periods from August to October of less than 5 days duration were approximately 7% for one site and approximately 20% for two other sites.The characteristics of frost in the period in which most winter crops flower are also described. The characteristics are the mean date of last heavy frost and last frost, and frost spells in each of August, September and October. In order to minimize risk from frost during anthesis and from high temperature and water stress during grain filling, this analysis suggests that anthesis should occur in earlylmid September, late Septemberlearly October and earlylmid October for the western, central and eastern parts of the region respectively. For areas in the north-eastern and south-eastern parts that are above 500 m, anthesis should occur mid/late October and earlylmid November respectively. These analytical findings are consistent with field studies on wheat.A weak negative correlation between the first and the last frost is present in most of the sites of the region. This suggests that if in any particular year the first frost occurs earlier than its long-term mean, then the last frost tends to occur later than its long-term mean.
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