Dust is the dominant aerosol type over West Africa (WA), and therefore accurate simulation of dust impact is critical for better prediction of weather and climate change. the dust radiative forcing (DRf) is estimated using two sets of experiments in this study: one without and the other with dust aerosol and its feedbacks with the Weather Research and forecasting with chemistry model (WRf-chem). Results show that DRF presents a net warming effect at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and in the atmosphere (ATM), and cooling at the surface (SFC). The net DRF over WA is estimated to be 9 W/m 2 at the TOA, 23 W/m 2 in the ATM, and − 13 W/m 2 at the Sfc. furthermore, dust-induced a reduction of sensible heat up to 24 W/m 2 and SFC temperature up to 2 °C cooling over WA, an increase of latent heat up to 12 W/m 2 over Sahara, a decrease up to 24 W/m 2 over the vegetated surfaces and an increase in the surface energy balance up to 12 W/m 2 over WA. The presence of dust significantly influences the surface energy budget over WA, suggesting that dust effects should be considered in more climate studies to improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Aerosols play a vital role in the climate system and have been among the major uncertainties in predictions of future climate change 1. West Africa (WA) is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, with the Sahara desert as the major source of dust aerosols in the world 2-5. The vulnerability is higher in the Sahel region, which has experienced a long period of drought in the late 1960s and 1980s. Numerous studies have pointed out that dust loading over the Sahel has increased significantly between the 1960s and 1980s, and is the consequence of drying of the region 6-13. Since the 1990s, better rainfall conditions appear to occur in the Sahel region 14-16. On this basis, a comprehensive investigation of dust impact on climate variability and drought in WA is essential, where the economy depends mostly on rainfed agriculture and transhumant livestock 11,15,17-19. To improve our understanding, the scientific community has launched several field campaigns, such as SaHAran Dust Experiments (SHADE) 20 , SAharan Mineral dUst experiMent (SAMUM) 21 , African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) 22 , etc. Dust aerosols emitted from the Sahara and Sahel are considerably higher than any other desert in the world. The surface wind speed is the primary controlling factor of the emission and transport of dust particles into the atmosphere to great distances by convective events that develop actively in the desert 2,3,5,23,24. More than half of dust deposited in the oceans comes from elsewhere in North Africa. Saharan dust contains nutrients that fertilize soils and water, block or reflect sunlight, affect the formation of clouds and cyclones 25-27. Interactions of dust particles with radiation in the troposphere (absorption, scattering, etc.) are the basis in changing atmospheric state parameters, which may induce significant changes in climate. Dust aerosols influence many proces...
In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly-evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 hours. Using Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively-active parts of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery. We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For a Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6-18 hours, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.
This study investigated the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate seven different heavy precipitation (PRE) events that occurred across East Africa in the summer of 2020. The WRF model outputs were evaluated against high-resolution satellite-based observations, which were obtained from prior evaluations of several satellite observations with 30 stations’ data. The synoptic conditions accompanying the events were also investigated to determine the conditions that are conducive to heavy PRE. The verification of the WRF output was carried out using the area-related root mean square error (RMSE)-based fuzzy method. This method quantifies the similarity of PRE intensity distribution between forecast and observation at different spatial scales. The results showed that the WRF model reproduced the heavy PRE with PRE magnitudes ranging from 6 to >30 mm/day. The spatial pattern from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) was close to that of the WRF output. The area-related RMSE with respect to observation showed that the error in the model tended to reduce as the spatial scale increased for all the events. The WRF and high-resolution satellite data had an obvious advantage when validating the heavy PRE events in 2020. This study demonstrated that WRF may be used for forecasting heavy PRE events over East Africa when high resolutions and subsequent simulation setups are used.
This study investigated the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) seasonality, trends, abrupt changes, and driving mechanisms with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over Equatorial Africa (EQA) during 1980–2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of mean ET were computed based on a 40-year average at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen slope test, and the Bayesian test were used to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes. The results showed that the mean annual PET (AET) for 1980–2020 was 110 (70) mm. Seasonal mean PET (AET) values were 112 (72) in summer, 110 (85) in autumn, 109 (84) in winter, and 110 (58) in spring. The MK test showed an increasing (decreasing) rate, and the Sen slope identified upward (downward) at a rate of 0.35 (0.05) mm yr−10. The PET and AET abrupt change points were observed to happen in 1995 and 2000. Both dry and wet regions showed observed weak (strong) correlation coefficient values of 0.3 (0.8) between PET/AET and climate factors, but significant spatiotemporal differences existed. Generally, air temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity best explain ET dynamics rather than precipitation and wind speed. The regional atmospheric circulation patterns are directly linked to ET but vary significantly in space and time. From a policy perspective, these findings may have implications for future water resource management.
This study evaluated the historical precipitation simulations of 49 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology, linear trends, and their spatial correlation with global SST across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during the period of 1980–2014, using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCP) data as a reference. Taylor’s diagram was used to quantify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in simulating precipitation. The CMIP6 multi-mean ensemble (MME) and the majority of the GCMs replicated the dominant features of the spatial and temporal variations reasonably well. The CMIP6 MME outperformed the majority of the individual models. The spatial variation of the CMIP6 MME closely matched the observation. The results showed that at annual and seasonal scales, the GPCP and CMIP6 MME reproduced a coherent spatial pattern in terms of the magnitude of precipitation. The humid region received >300 mm and the arid region received <50 mm across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The models from the same modeling centers replicated the precipitation levels across different seasons and regions. The CMIP6 MME and the majority of the individual models overestimate (underestimate) in humid (arid and semi-arid)-climate zones. The annual and pre-monsoon seasons (i.e., DJFMA) were better replicated in the CMIP6 GCMs than in the monsoon-precipitation model (MJJASON). The CMIP6 MME (GPCP) showed stronger wetting (drying) trends in the northern hemisphere. In contrast, a strong drying trend in the CMIP6 MME and a weak wetting trend in the GPCP were shown in the Southern Hemisphere. The CMIP6 MME captures the spatial pattern of linear trends better than individual models across different climate zones and regions. The relationship between precipitation and sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited a high spatial correlation (−0.80 and 0.80) with large variability across different regions and climate zones. The GPCP (CMIP6 MME) exhibited a heterogenous (homogeneous) spatial pattern, with higher correlation coefficients recorded in the CMIP6 MME than in the GPCP in all cases. Individual models from the same modeling centers showed spatial homogeneity in correlation values. The differences exhibited by the individual GCMs highlight the significance of each model’s unique dynamics and physics; however, model selection should be considered for specific applications.
Surface soil moisture (SSM) plays an essential role in the Earth’s water cycle and land surface processes as well as in vegetative growth, ecological health, and ecosystem properties. Particularly, information on this parameter’s spatiotemporal variability at the Tibetan Plateau is of key importance to the study of climate and the impact of climate change due to it is distinctive characteristics in this area. The present study assesses the operational SSM products provided by the SMAP (Soil Moisture Active and Passive) satellite at the Tibetan Plateau, Naqu observational station, China. In particular, the globally distributed Level 3 operational products, SPL3SMP_36km and the Enhanced Passive SSM Product SPL3SMP_9km, are evaluated in two-phases. SSM and the surface temperature estimates by SPL3SMP_36km and SPL3SMP_9km are compared against corresponding ground data available at the Naqu observation network. All in all, the examined products captured the SSM dynamics in the studied area. The results showed that precipitation is the key driving source of SSM variability. SSM fluctuated significantly and was dependent on precipitation in the studied region. Statistical metrics, such as the root mean square error (RMSE), varied for SPL3SMP_36km and SPL3SMP_9km in the ranges of 0.036–0.083 m3/m3 and 0.074–0.097 m3/m3, respectively. The unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) was higher than the SMAP uncertainty limit (0.04 m3/m3) in most cases. This study establishes some of the causes for the different performances of SMAP products, mainly, the ancillary input dataset parameterizations, and, specifically, the surface temperature parameterization schemes of SMAP retrieval algorithm is analyzed and discussed. Our research findings highlight, among others, the usefulness of those SSM products from SMAP, particularly in mesoscale studies, providing additional useful insights into the use of those products in practice in China and globally.
<p>In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly-evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 hours. Using Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively-active parts of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery.</p><p>We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For the Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6-18 hours, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.</p>
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