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In the last few decades, significant changes in livestock farming systems and land use were observed in European mountain areas with large implications for the sustainability of grazing agro-ecosystems. System dynamic studies become essential to understand these changes, identify the drivers involved and trying to anticipate what might happen in the future. The objectives of this study were as follows: (i) to analyse the main recent changes that occurred in mountain cattle farming in the Spanish Pyrenees; (ii) to typify diverse trajectories of evolution of these systems; and (iii) to establish drivers of change that might help understand the evolution of mountain agriculture. A constant sample of mountain cattle farms was analysed for the period 1990 to 2004. In total, 30% of farms have disappeared during this time interval. For the remaining farms, the most important general changes observed were as follows: increment of size; change of productive orientation from mixed beef-dairy to pure beef production; extensification of grazing management; reduction of family labour and increase of pluriactivity; reduction of unitary variable costs; and increase of labour productivity. After the elimination of common temporal effects between dates, multivariate techniques allowed for the identification of three patterns and six specific trajectories of evolution that are profiled in the text. Relationships between the patterns of evolution and other variables referring the farm, the household and the socio-economic environment were identified as drivers of change: (i) the specific location of the farm in relation to the capital village of the municipality and the evolution other sectors of the economy, in particular tourism; (ii) the size of the family labour, presence of successors and degree of dynamism of the farmer; and (iii) the initial orientation of production.

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socioeconomic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analysed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socioeconomic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socioeconomic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.

The aim of this work was to elucidate the socio-cultural and economic value of a number of ecosystem services delivered by mountain agroecosystems (mostly grazing systems) in Euro-Mediterranean regions. We combined deliberative (focus groups) and survey-based stated-preference methods (choice modelling) to, first, identify the perceptions of farmers and other citizens on the most important ecosystem services and, second, to value these in economic terms according to the willingness to pay of the local (residents of the study area) and general (region where the study area is located) populations. Cultural services (particularly the aesthetic and recreational values of the landscape), supporting services (biodiversity maintenance) and some regulating services (particularly fire risk prevention) were clearly recognized by both farmers and citizens, with different degrees of importance according to their particular interests and objectives. The prevention of forest fires (≈50% of total willingness to pay) was valued by the general population as a key ecosystem service delivered by these agroecosystems, followed by the production of specific quality products linked to the territory (≈20%), biodiversity (≈20%) and cultural landscapes (≈10%). The value given by local residents to the last two ecosystem services differed considerably (≈10 and 25% for biodiversity and cultural landscape, respectively). The Total Economic Value of mountain agroecosystems was ≈120 € person−1 year−1, three times the current level of support of agro-environmental policies. By targeting and quantifying the environmental objectives of the European agri-environmental policy and compensating farmers for the public goods they deliver, the so-called “green” subsidies may become true Payments for Ecosystems Services.