Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models

Abstract

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socioeconomic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analysed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socioeconomic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socioeconomic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.

Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: scientific basis for action

“…Opportunities for mitigating emissions include dietary manipulation, genetic improvement and mortality reduction to enhance overall production potential; manure management; and reduction of deforestation and pasture burning through payments for ecosystem services [88,89]. Adaptation strategies include income and livelihood diversification by mixing crop and livestock production; sustainable intensification through pasture regeneration or destocking; diversifying livestock feeds; manipulation of rumen microbial composition; matching animal breeds to local environments and moving animals to other sites; and better risk management and transformative change (for example, exit from or entry into animal agriculture) [88,[90][91][92]. These strategies rely heavily on sustainable intensification, as in the improvement of productivity and efficiency that exists in conjunction with incentives and investments that allow systems to intensify and in the development of regulations and limits on intensifying systems, among other aspects [93].…”

“…Reisinger et al [109] recently evaluated different metrics on the integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, and the landuse model, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), to examine the global costs of abatement strategies used to reduce the magnitude of climate change and subsequent effects on regional food production and supply prices for livestock products and other agricultural commodities. Other transformative approaches to livestock production include identifying the value of a blend of market-orientated smallholders vs. large-scale farms, evaluating ecosystem services payments as a means of income diversification, forming institutional and market mechanisms for reaching smallholders to foster technological change, finding the best locations for both livestock production and marginal land rehabilitation, and creating new capacity of the livestock sector for mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change [90,110] (Figure 4). The social and economic impacts (for example, income stability, human nutrition, product value chains, transaction and opportunity costs of other alternatives) of landsparing and reducing livestock consumption, two recently suggested mitigation options, merit further investigation, especially with respect to gender, region and income differentiation [92].…”

Impact of climate change on the agro-ecological innovation of coffee agroforestry systems in Central Kenya

“…This comprises decline in yield of major cereal crops (Lobell, 2008;Liu et al, 2008;IPCC, 2013), decrease in quality of livestock products and loss of livestock herd size due to feed shortage (Jones & Thornton, 2009;Herrero et al, 2014;Seo, 2010), limit opportunities to diversify household livelihoods (Bernstein et al, 2007;Linke et al, 2015) and loss of productivity of high value crops such as coffee and tea (Popular & Laderach, 2014;Eitzinger et al, 2014;Laderach et al, 2011). Wheeler & von Braun (2013) stated climate change interrupts progress towards world without hunger and Ollat et al (2016) evidenced the quality of cash crops depended on climate patterns.…”

Modelling the Spatial Expansion of Green Manure Considering Land Productivity and Implementing Strategies

“…CLUE-S is an empirical analysis-based model that considers the influences of geophysical and socioeconomic driving factors on land-use category changes [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49]. The main purpose of the transformation of the land-use type and the spatial allocation in the CLUE-S model was to provide a reference for predicting green manure intercropping.…”