Worldwide trends in breast cancer incidence from 1993 to 2012: Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression

Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj; Rajaa, Sathish; Giriyappa, Dinesh Kumar; Bharathi, Arivarasan; Velmurugan, Balachandiran; Ganesh, Karthika

doi:10.4103/jrms.jrms_708_19

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…Further investigation is necessary to determine the reasons for the elevated risk in this particular age group. Period effect: Our study identified increasing period effects in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates from 2003 to 2017, aligning with findings from previous research (8)(9)(10). This observation suggests that socioeconomic transformations and modernized lifestyle changes may constitute the primary factors contributing to the rise in breast cancer incidence and mortality in China.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer — China, 2003–2017

Sun¹,

Lei²,

Zheng³

et al. 2023

China CDC Weekly

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Introduction: This study reported the trends in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in China, and analyzed the corresponding age-periodcohort effects.Methods: Data from 22 population-based cancer registries in China between 2003 and 2017 were analyzed. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using Segi's world standard population. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and age-period-cohort effects were examined using the intrinsic estimator method.Results: The ASIR for female breast cancer exhibited a more rapid increase in rural areas compared to urban areas across all age groups. The most substantial increase was observed in the 20-34 age group in rural areas [annual percent change (APC)=9.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.0%-11.0%, P<0.001]. The ASMR for females under 50 years old remained stable from 2003 to 2017 in both urban and rural areas. However, the ASMR for females over 50 in rural areas and those over 65 in urban areas demonstrated a significant increase, with the most pronounced increase observed among females over 65 in rural areas (APC=4.9%, 95% CI: 2.8%-7.0%, P<0.001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing period effects and decreasing cohort effects for female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in both urban and rural settings. Notably, the cohort effect for incidence displayed a slight upward trend for females born between 1983 and 1992 in rural areas.Conclusions: Our study revealed a rapid increase in breast cancer incidence among younger generations and an accelerated mortality rate in older populations residing in rural areas. To effectively address the growing burden of female breast cancer in China, it is essential to develop and implement targeted intervention strategies.Breast cancer in females represents one of the most rapidly increasing malignancies in China (1-3). Projections estimate that over 400,000 new diagnoses and over 100,000 fatalities will transpire by 2030 within the nation (4). Consequently, it is crucial to establish targeted intervention strategies for this cancer to avert it from developing into a significant public health issue.Despite recent advances, there remains a gap in understanding the trends in incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer in China. The present study aimed to examine these trends from 2003 to 2017, focusing on age groups and geographic distribution. Joinpoint regression modeling and ageperiod-cohort analyses were employed in this investigation. Additionally, this research can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of current cancer screening initiatives and inform future policy-making in China.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer — China, 2003–2017

Sun¹,

Lei²,

Zheng³

et al. 2023

China CDC Weekly

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“…15 Krishnamoorthy et al showed increasing worldwide trends in breast cancer incidence during 1993-2012. 16 Also, an overall increasing trend in the incidence of breast cancer was shown in Zurich, Switzerland between 1981 and 2017. 17 A trend analysis of the global incidence of breast cancer showed a rapidly rising incidence in a large number of countries including Asian countries, especially those with rapid economic development in the past several decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Trends in the Incidence Rates of Breast and Gynecological Cancers in Asia from 1998–2012: An Ecological Study

2022

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Background: There is limited evidence on the epidemiology and time trend analysis of incidence rates of gynecological cancer in Asia as a whole. We conducted this study to demonstrate breast and gynecological cancers incidence and trends in selected Asian populations. Method: We conducted this ecological study using cancer and population data from cancer incidence in five continents (CI5). We extracted the data of breast, uterine, cervix and ovary cancers in selected Asian populations from 1998 to 2012 from CI5plus. We used Joinpoint regression model (version 4.8.0.1) to evaluate the annual percentage change (APC), which characterizes trends in cancer rates over time, and the average annual percent changes (AAPCs), which describes the average APCs over a period of multiple years. Results were considered statistically significant at P < 0.05. Results: Between breast and gynecological cancers, breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among women in Asia. The time trend of the incidence rates showed a constant growth in breast, ovary and corpus uteri cancers. This rising trend was obviously sharper for uterine cancer (AAPC 95% CI = 3.4 [3.0, 3.7]) followed by breast [AAPC 95% CI = 2.1 (2.0, 2.2)] and ovarian cancers (AAPC 95% CI = 0.5 [-0.4, 1.3]). The age-adjusted incidence rate (ASR) of cervical cancer displayed a declining trend from 1998 to 2012 (AAPC 95% CI = -1.4 [-2.4, -0.5]). Conclusion: Incidence rates of breast and gynecological cancers have a rising trend in Asian countries. However, breast and gynecological cancers have different patterns of time trend.

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“…Where, M for the incidence/DALYs rate of the corresponding age group, μ for the intercept item, α, β, and γ for the age, period and cohort effect, and ε for random error. To address the problem of identification of the model parameters (perfect collinearity of the age, period, and cohort variables), weighted least squares regression was used to partition the effects of age, period, and cohort effect ( 12 , 16 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Disability Adjusted Life Years of Schizophrenia in China Over 30 Years

et al. 2022

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BackgroundSchizophrenia is an important public health problem in China. This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of schizophrenia in China between 1990 and 2019.MethodsThe incidence and DALYs data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age–period–cohort model was used in the analysis.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of schizophrenia increased by 0.3 and 3.7% for both sexes between 1990 and 2019. For males, the local drift for incidence was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 10 to 29 years (local drifts, 0.01 to 0.26%) and lower than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 35 to 74 years (local drifts, −1.01 to −0.06%). For females, the local drift was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 10 to 34 years (local drifts, 0.05 to 0.26%) and lower than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 40 to 74 years (local drifts, −0.86 to −0.11%). The local drift for DALYs rate was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in the age group from 10 to 69 years (local drifts, 0.06 to 0.26% for males and 0.06 to 0.28% for females). The estimated period and cohort relative risks (RR) for DALYs rate of schizophrenia were found in monotonic upward patterns, and the cohort RR for the incidence increased as the birth cohort moved forward starting with those born in 1972.ConclusionAlthough the crude incidence of schizophrenia has decreased in China, the ASIR, ASDR, and crude DALYs rate all showed a general increasing trend over the last three decades. The DALYs rate continue to increase as the birth cohort moved forward, and the increasing trend of incidence was also found in individuals born after 1972. More efforts are needed to promote mental health in China.

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Worldwide trends in breast cancer incidence from 1993 to 2012: Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer — China, 2003–2017

Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer — China, 2003–2017

Trends in the Incidence Rates of Breast and Gynecological Cancers in Asia from 1998–2012: An Ecological Study

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Disability Adjusted Life Years of Schizophrenia in China Over 30 Years

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