Winter Tornado Outbreaks

Galway, Joseph G.; Pearson, Allen

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<1072:wto>2.0.co;2

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…This is similar to the WRF delayed maximum in rainfall intensity observed by Clark et al (2007). It should be noted that agreement herein is likely improved due to stronger HCW forcing mechanisms (e.g., fronts) during the months March-May (Galway and Pearson 1981). It is probable that this similarity would diminish as the HCW season progresses into June-August when subtler forcing for ascent is present (Liu et al 2006).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…This difference is subtle, considering the differing WRF initial and boundary conditions [National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global reanalysis rather than CCSM3] and the examination of an earlier period in the annual convective cycle (March-May rather than April-June). The slightly lower Z, but higher UH, values used in our study makes physical sense as earlier months in the annual convective cycle are typically dominated by a low-CAPE and highshear environment (Brooks et al 2007) that are strongly synoptically forced (Galway and Pearson 1981).…”

Section: ) Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 69%

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Estimations of Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States Using Dynamical Downscaling

Gensini

Mote

2014

Journal of Climate

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High-resolution (4 km; hourly) regional climate modeling is utilized to resolve March–May hazardous convective weather east of the U.S. Continental Divide for a historical climate period (1980–90). A hazardous convective weather model proxy is used to depict occurrences of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and large hail at hourly intervals during the period of record. Through dynamical downscaling, the regional climate model does an admirable job of replicating the seasonal spatial shifts of hazardous convective weather occurrence during the months examined. Additionally, the interannual variability and diurnal progression of observed severe weather reports closely mimic cycles produced by the regional model. While this methodology has been tested in previous research, this is the first study to use coarse-resolution global climate model data to force a high-resolution regional model with continuous seasonal integration in the United States for purposes of resolving severe convection. Overall, it is recommended that dynamical downscaling play an integral role in measuring climatological distributions of severe weather, both in historical and future climates.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: ) Regional Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 69%

Estimations of Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States Using Dynamical Downscaling

Gensini

Mote

2014

Journal of Climate

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“…It should be noted that the methodology used herein would likely do a poor job at capturing convective regimes in the Southeast United States cool‐season, as these events are climatologically characterized by a low‐CAPE and high‐shear environment (Brooks et al ., ) that may not exceed the severe convective environment threshold. However, they may still produce severe weather regimes due to strong synoptic‐scale forcing (Galway and Pearson, ). Finally, these results are characterized by one particular GCM/RCM combination and should not be considered the only potential change for future convective environments.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future convective environments using NARCCAP

Gensini

Ramseyer

Mote

2013

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines trends in atmospheric environments conducive to the development of severe convection in the United States, as simulated by a regional model forced with output from a global climate model. Meteorological variables necessary for severe convection from current (1981–1995) and future (2041–2065) epochs were compared. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the number of significant severe weather environments in the Northeast United States, Great Lakes, and Southeast Canada regions. Regional severe weather environment increases can be attributed to both an increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the number of times deep‐layer wind shear and CAPE juxtaposition. Given the current distribution of severe convective weather, these changes would alter the current physical risk of severe convective storms across a large population.

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“…The dominant easterly and northeasterly motion of tornadoes described in our twentythree-year climatology is likely due to several factors, including the predominance of the midlatitude westerlies across the study region, tornado-producing storm typology, and the tendency for tornado outbreaks in the eastern two-thirds of the United States to occur in areas of southwesterly flow at 500 hPa with a long wave trough to the west of the outbreak area (Beebe 1956;Miller 1972;Galway and Pearson 1981). F0 11754 10140 2615 349 F1 7017 4474 4195 2452 F2 2438 826 2060 1598 F3 708 77 691 629 F4 158 5 156 153 F5 13 0 13 13 Total 22088 15522 6730 6194 The motion of tornadoes is undoubtedly affected by the parent convective storms that spawn them.…”

Section: Results: National Scalementioning

confidence: 86%

“…The dominant easterly and northeasterly motion of tornadoes described in our twenty‐three‐year climatology is likely due to several factors, including the predominance of the midlatitude westerlies across the study region, tornado‐producing storm typology, and the tendency for tornado outbreaks in the eastern two‐thirds of the United States to occur in areas of southwesterly flow at 500 hPa with a long wave trough to the west of the outbreak area (Beebe 1956; Miller 1972; Galway and Pearson 1981).…”

Section: Results: National Scalementioning

confidence: 91%

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Tornado Path Direction*

Suckling

Ashley

2006

The Professional Geographer

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Common perception is that tornadoes travel in paths from the southwest quadrant of directions toward the northeast. This study examines path directions for 6,194 tornadoes that occurred in the eastern two‐thirds of the United States during the twenty‐three‐year period 1980–2002. At the national scale, nearly 70 percent of tornadoes included in the study propagated from the west, west‐southwest, and southwest, with west‐southwest being the highest frequency origin direction. Nevertheless, distinct seasonal and regional variations were found. In central and northern areas of the country, a more westerly or northwesterly path origin prevails during late spring and summer. The midtropospheric flow, convective typology, and synoptic patterns of tornado outbreaks are thought to contribute to the distributions observed in the climatology.

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Winter Tornado Outbreaks

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Estimations of Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States Using Dynamical Downscaling

Estimations of Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States Using Dynamical Downscaling

Future convective environments using NARCCAP

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Tornado Path Direction*

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