Future convective environments using <scp>NARCCAP</scp>

Gensini, Vittorio A.; Ramseyer, Craig A.; Mote, Thomas L.

doi:10.1002/joc.3769

Cited by 55 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…This behaviour has been noticed in previous studies such as Trapp et al (2009), who mention the influence of the decrease of SHR06 on the number of environments capable of developing severe weather is attenuated by the expected CAPE increase in the future. Gensini et al (2014) also verified an increase of the frequency of environments favourable for the development of severe weather. However, this study used a distinct discriminant line (CAPE × SHR06 > 20 000 m 3 s −3 ), which requires higher values of CAPE and/or SHR06.…”

Section: Environments Favourable For Severe Stormsmentioning

confidence: 60%

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Future climate change of stability indices for the Iberian Peninsula

Viceto

Marta‐Almeida

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Stability indices evaluate the atmospheric instability which is a basic and precursor ingredient needed for storms to develop. In this study, we evaluated changes of some atmospheric stability indices, namely Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Deep‐Layer Wind Shear (SHR06) and Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT), for the Iberian Peninsula, for a future climate scenario (2081–2100), considering the greenhouse gases emission scenario RCP8.5, relative to a historical period (1986–2005). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was forced by ERA‐Interim, for validation purposes, and by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model. The novelty of this approach is the study of extreme weather events through the evaluation of conditions favourable to their development instead of directly studying them. The latter approach may be problematic since these phenomena are known to be poorly reproduced by models due to their relatively low resolution and parametrization processes such as clouds and precipitation. Our approach uses stability indices obtained from simulated variables, such as temperature and winds, which are, generally, much better simulated by models. The WRF‐MPI model was validated against WRF‐ERA. Overall, the WRF‐MPI simulates well the three indices considered here, particularly CAPE, when compared to WRF‐ERA. Their spatial patterns were similar, although there is a systematic positive bias in the WRF‐MPI. This is minimized when we evaluate climate change by computing differences of WRF‐MPI simulations between the future climate scenario and the historical period. In the future, it is estimated a significant increase of CAPE and SWEAT intensity, mainly in summer and autumn. It is also expected a decrease of SHR06 intensity in summer and autumn and an increase in the remaining seasons. Therefore, we may anticipate an increase of the probability of occurrence of environments favourable to the development of severe weather, mainly in the Mediterranean, mostly associated to higher CAPE values.

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Section: Environments Favourable For Severe Stormsmentioning

confidence: 60%

“…Gensini et al . () also verified an increase of the frequency of environments favourable for the development of severe weather. However, this study used a distinct discriminant line (CAPE × SHR06 > 20 000 m 3 s −3 ), which requires higher values of CAPE and/or SHR06.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Future climate change of stability indices for the Iberian Peninsula

Viceto

Marta‐Almeida

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In particular, additional efforts are needed to determine how instability and shear might change and how these changes might influence tornado activity. This is particularly warranted because some studies have suggested that increases in instability and low‐level humidity are likely to increase the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes in the future (Trapp et al ., , ; Diffenbaugh et al ., ; Gensini et al ., ), but Tippett et al . () recently reported that shear, rather than instability, is better associated with observed increases in the number of extreme tornado outbreaks.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions

Moore

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The numbers of E(F)1+ tornadoes per year generally declined in all regions of the United States, except the Southeast, where they increased in frequency. The South Great Plains had the greatest median tornado frequency early in the study period whereas the Southeast had the greatest in the middle and late periods. The proportion of tornadoes occurring in the contiguous United States in summer are decreasing whereas the proportion occurring in fall are increasing. Annual tornado frequency in the (a) West, (b) North Great Plains, (c) South Great Plains, (d) Midwest, (e) Southeast, and (f) Northeast regions. The dashed line is the Theil–Sen slope estimate and the solid line is the local polynomial regression curve with a smoothing span of 0.66.

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“…While it is true that even CAPE >100 J kg −1 is regarded as a threshold designed to ensure that the environment can be characterized as being convective (Brooks et al 2003;Kunz et al 2009;Gensini et al 2014b), in the USA, however, thunderstorms appear when CAPE is mainly about 500 J kg −1 (Rasmussen and Blanchard 1998 In the study conducted for The Netherlands, Haklander and Van Delden (2003) determined a value of MUCAPE ≥168 J kg −1 as an optimal threshold for thunderstorm probability forecasting. In the few studies carried out for thunderstorm conditions in Poland, a value of CAPE >300 J kg −1 has been used most often (Malinowska 2011).…”

Section: Mucape As a Predictor For Thunderstorm Occurrencementioning

confidence: 99%

Use of RegCM gridded dataset for thunderstorm favorable conditions analysis over Poland—climatological approach

Walawender

Kielar

Ustrnul

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg −1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson's correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75-0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, longterm variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.

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Future convective environments using NARCCAP

Cited by 55 publications

References 17 publications

Future climate change of stability indices for the Iberian Peninsula

Future climate change of stability indices for the Iberian Peninsula

Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions

Use of RegCM gridded dataset for thunderstorm favorable conditions analysis over Poland—climatological approach

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