Over the period 1980-2009, there were 58 documented hyperthermia deaths of American-style football players in the United States. This study examines the geography, timing, and meteorological conditions present during the onset of hyperthermia, using the most complete dataset available. Deaths are concentrated in the eastern quadrant of the United States and are most common during August. Over half the deaths occurred during morning practices when high humidity levels were common. The athletes were typically large (79% with a body mass index >30) and mostly (86%) played linemen positions. Meteorological conditions were atypically hot and humid by local standards on most days with fatalities. Further, all deaths occurred under conditions defined as high or extreme by the American College of Sports Medicine using the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), but under lower threat levels using the heat index (HI). Football-specific thresholds based on clothing (full football uniform, practice uniform, or shorts) were also examined. The thresholds matched well with data from athletes wearing practice uniforms but poorly for those in shorts only. Too few cases of athletes in full pads were available to draw any broad conclusions. We recommend that coaches carefully monitor players, particularly large linemen, early in the pre-season on days with wet bulb globe temperatures that are categorized as high or extreme. Also, as most of the deaths were among young athletes, longer acclimatization periods may be needed.

Eastern Puerto Rico and the surrounding Caribbean experienced a severe drought in 2015 that resulted in record‐low reservoir and river levels. Rainfall deficits in April and May, which represent the period when the drought began, were more severe in 2015 than recent droughts of record. While El Niño has been associated with drought in the Caribbean, onset of the 2015 drought was strongly associated with lower‐than‐average values of a recently developed tool used by weather forecasters in San Juan, the Gálvez‐Davison Index (GDI), which is used to measure the potential for thunderstorm development and rainfall. Persistently low GDI values indicate strong and frequent intrusions of hot, dry air in the low to middle troposphere, suppressing convection, both locally and in development regions for tropical waves that impact Puerto Rico. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is largely responsible for this anomalously hot, dry air, which produced thermodynamically stable conditions and limited thunderstorms and rainfall. Moreover, higher‐than‐normal aerosol concentrations, typically associated with SAL intrusion over the Caribbean, were recorded in April and May 2015. A comparison to advanced very high resolution radiometer aerosol optical thickness demonstrates that higher Caribbean aerosols in the early rainfall season, particularly June, are associated with decreased rainfall in eastern Puerto Rico. Results here demonstrate a direct link between the early and more pronounced SAL intrusions into the Caribbean and the suppression of the early rainfall season. More broadly, a reduction in the GDI and increase in the trade wind inversion was associated with reduced early season rainfall in the eastern Caribbean.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass in recent decades, with an acceleration in mass loss since 2000. In this study, we apply a self‐organizing map classification to integrated vapor transport data from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis to determine if these GrIS mass loss trends are linked to increases in moisture transport to Greenland. We find that “moist” days (i.e., days featuring anomalously intense water vapor transport to Greenland) were significantly more common during 2000–2015 compared to 1979–1994. Furthermore, the two most intense GrIS melt seasons during the last 36 years were either preceded by a record percentage of moist winter days (2010) or occurred during a summer with a record frequency of moist days (2012). We hypothesize that moisture transport events alter the GrIS energy budget by increasing downwelling longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent energy.

This study examines trends in atmospheric environments conducive to the development of severe convection in the United States, as simulated by a regional model forced with output from a global climate model. Meteorological variables necessary for severe convection from current (1981–1995) and future (2041–2065) epochs were compared. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the number of significant severe weather environments in the Northeast United States, Great Lakes, and Southeast Canada regions. Regional severe weather environment increases can be attributed to both an increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the number of times deep‐layer wind shear and CAPE juxtaposition. Given the current distribution of severe convective weather, these changes would alter the current physical risk of severe convective storms across a large population.

With limited groundwater reserves and few reservoirs, Caribbean islands such as Puerto Rico are largely dependent on regular rainfall to meet societal and ecological water needs. Thus, the ability to anticipate seasonal rainfall shortages, such as the 2015 drought, is particularly important, yet few reliable tools exist for this purpose. Consequently, interpolated surface precipitation observations from the Daymet archive are summarized on daily, annual, and seasonal time scales and compared to the host thermodynamic environment as characterized by the Gálvez–Davison index (GDI), a convective potential parameter designed specifically for the tropics. Complementing the Daymet precipitation totals, ≥1.1 million WSR-88D volume scans between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed for echo tops ≥ 10 000 ft (~3 km) to establish a radar-inferred precipitation activity database for Puerto Rico. The 15-yr record reveals that the GDI outperforms several midlatitude-centric thermodynamic indices, explaining roughly 25% of daily 3-km echo top (ET) activity during each of Puerto Rico’s primary seasons. In contrast, neither mean-layer CAPE, the K index, nor total totals explain more than 11% during any season. When aggregated to the seasonal level, the GDI strongly relates to 3-km ET (R2 = 0.65) and Daymet precipitation totals (R2 = 0.82) during the early rainfall season (ERS; April–July), with correlations weaker outside of this period. The 4-month ERS explains 51% (41%) of the variability to Puerto Rico’s annual rainfall during exceptionally wet (dry) years. These findings are valuable for climate downscaling studies predicting Puerto Rico’s hydroclimate in future atmospheric states, and they could potentially be adapted for operational seasonal precipitation forecasting.

No abstract

The tropical forests of northeast Puerto Rico (NE PR) and the Luquillo Mountains (LM) are a large repository for biodiversity and have an important role in regional biogeochemical processes. Precipitation is a key driver of the productivity of these sensitive ecosystems. This study analyses historical precipitation variability from 1985 to 2014 at El Verde Field Station (EVFS) at 380 m on the north facing slope of the LM. The primary objective of this study is to identify atmospheric states that lead to extreme wet/dry conditions at EVFS. This study also investigates how those wet/dry atmospheric states change over the study period through an epoch approach on annual and seasonal timescales. Self‐organizing maps (SOMs) are used to produce atmospheric states from ERA‐Interim low‐tropospheric moisture and circulation variables. These atmospheric states are downscaled to precipitation at the EVFS rain gauge. A probability density function of observed precipitation is calculated for each atmospheric state. Changes in node frequency, which is the number of days mapping to a particular node compared to the total number of days in the temporal period, are used to evaluate changes in wet/dry atmospheric states at EVFS. Results indicate that low‐precipitation days at EVFS are associated with atmospheric states with high 1000–700 hPa bulk wind shear and decreased 700 hPa moisture. Wet days in the study region are associated with moist low‐tropospheric environments with low wind shear. Our results indicate an increased frequency of dry season atmospheric states with lower 700 hPa moisture. Over the study period, the dry season has a decrease in median and extreme precipitation during rainy days (days >0 mm). A decrease in early rainfall season median precipitation on rainy days is observed despite an increase in days with measurable precipitation, likely driven by an increase in light rainfall days (<5 mm).

In groundwater-limited settings, such as Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands, societal, ecological, and agricultural water needs depend on regular rainfall. Though long-range numerical weather predication models explicitly predict precipitation, such quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) critically failed to detect the historic 2015 Caribbean drought. Consequently, this work examines the feasibility of developing a drought early warning tool using the Gálvez–Davison index (GDI), a tropical convective potential index, derived from the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). Drought forecasts are focused on Puerto Rico’s early rainfall season (ERS; April–July), which is susceptible to intrusions of strongly stable Saharan air and represents the largest source of hydroclimatic variability for the island. A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–land model, the CFSv2 can plausibly detect the transatlantic advection of low-GDI Saharan air with multimonth lead times. The mean ERS GDI is calculated from semidaily CFSv2 forecasts beginning 1 January of each year between 2012 and 2018 and monitored as the initialization approaches 1 April. The CFSv2 demonstrates a broad region of statistically significant correlations with observed GDI across the eastern Caribbean up to 30 days prior to the ERS. During 2015, the CFSv2 forecast a low-GDI tongue extending across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean with 60–90 days lead time and placed Puerto Rico’s 2015 ERS beneath the 15th percentile of all 1982–2018 ERS forecasts with up to 30 days lead time. A preliminary GDI-based QPF tool tested herein is a statistically significant improvement over climatology for the driest years.