Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

Sullivan, Andrew L.

doi:10.1071/wf06142

Cited by 330 publications

(136 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…In addition, interactions of fuels and weather with local topography can greatly influence fire activity (Moritz et al 2010;Sharples et al 2012). Fire behaviour models incorporate information on fuels, topography and weather to predict fire spread (Sullivan 2009a(Sullivan , 2009b(Sullivan , 2009c. Comparison of fire behaviour model outcomes against real-world fires has indicated that models typically do not accurately predict fire progression (Papadopoulos and Pavlidou 2011;Finney et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Veraverbeke

Sedano

Hook

et al. 2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. High temporal resolution information on burnt area is needed to improve fire behaviour and emissions models. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal anomaly and active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the timing of burnt area for 16 large wildland fires. For each fire, parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The optimal number of observations used to estimate a pixel's time of burning varied between four and six among the fires studied. The median standard error from kriging ranged between 0.80 and 3.56 days and the median standard error from geolocation uncertainty was between 0.34 and 2.72 days. For nine fires in the south-western US, the accuracy of the kriging model was assessed using high spatial resolution daily fire perimeter data available from the US Forest Service. For these nine fires, we also assessed the temporal reporting accuracy of the MODIS burnt area products (MCD45A1 and MCD64A1). Averaged over the nine fires, the kriging method correctly mapped 73% of the pixels within the accuracy of a single day, compared with 33% for MCD45A1 and 53% for MCD64A1. Systematic application of this algorithm to wildland fires in the future may lead to new information about vegetation, climate and topographic controls on fire behaviour.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Veraverbeke

Sedano

Hook

et al. 2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…new mathematical models, to handle and understand better the spreading mechanism of the wildfires in forests, grasslands, and wheat fields -with wind, slope, varying fuel properties across the domain and in geographically complicated terrain, see for example the description of the wildfire simulator Prometheus in [14], the comparison of various simulators in [15,16], and the general surveys as in e.g. [17,18,19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

Markvorsen

2016

Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications

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One of the finest and most powerful assets of Finsler geometry is its ability to model, describe, and analyze in precise geometric terms an abundance of physical phenomena that are genuinely asymmetric, see e.g. [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. In this paper we show how wildfires can be naturally included into this family. Specifically we show how the celebrated and much applied Richards' equations for the large scale elliptic wildfire spreads have a rather simple Finsler-geometric formulation. The general Finsler framework can be explicitly 'integrated' to provide detailed -and curvature sensitive -geodesic solutions to the wildfire spread problem. The methods presented here stem directly from first principles of 2-dimensional Finsler geometry, and they can be readily extracted from the seminal monographs [10] and [11], but we will take special care to introduce and exemplify the necessary framework for the implementation of the geometric machinery into this new application -not least in order to facilitate and support the dialog between geometers and the wildfire modelling community. The 'integration' part alluded to above is obtained via the geodesics of the ensuing Finsler metric which represents the local fire templates. The 'paradigm' part of the present proposal is thus concerned with the corresponding shift of attention from the actual fire-lines to consider instead the geodesic spray -the 'fire-particles' -which together, side by side, mold the fire-lines at each instant of time and thence eventually constitute the local and global structure of the wildfire spread.

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“…For example, the empirical tree mortality models may someday be replaced by physically based models (Butler and Dickinson 2010). Sullivan (2009aSullivan ( , 2009b) reviewed 39 models for surface fire spread developed from 1990 to 2007, and Alexander and Cruz (2012) list 20 fireline intensity-flame length relationships. Although research users may benefit from access to multiple models, fire managers will appreciate recommended models and methods.…”

Section: Future Needsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

Andrews¹

2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

168

100

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Abstract. The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire behaviour, fire effects and fire environment. It is a point system for which conditions are constant for each calculation, but is designed to encourage examination of the effect of a range of conditions through tables and graphs. BehavePlus is successor to BEHAVE, which was developed in 1977 and became available for field application in 1984. It was updated to BehavePlus in 2002. Updates through version 5 have added features and modelling capabilities. It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand the system. A redesign will address the need for consolidation with other systems and make it easier to incorporate new research results. This paper describes the development history and application of BehavePlus. The design, features and modelling foundation of the current system are described. Considerations for the next generation are presented.

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Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

Cited by 330 publications

References 50 publications

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data

A Finsler geodesic spray paradigm for wildfire spread modelling

Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

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