Why are Quantitative Relationships between Environmental Quality and Fish Populations so Elusive?

Rose, Kenneth A.

doi:10.2307/2641099

Cited by 41 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, it has been argued that research on the effects of the environment on fish population dynamics holds little value for successfully managing living marine resources, in part, because of a lack of predictability of environmental variables, and because fishing is a more dominant driver 28,29 . We have shown here that the movement of a commercially important fish species tracks remote oceanographic features that are potentially predictable at decadal and multidecadal time scales through its effect on local temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation

et al. 2011

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation

et al. 2011

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“…Furthermore, anthropogenic impacts, such as contamination by toxic substances, potentially affecting the viability of spawning products and eutrophication and impacting the oxygen consumption rates in deep Baltic basins and thus the ambient oxygen conditions for cod egg development (e.g., MacKenzie et al 1996) have to be verified and incorporated when projecting over longer time periods. Finally, the importance of structural uncertainty in medium-to long-term projection models, i.e., which variables to incorporate and how to incorporate them into the model (e.g., linear, exponential, additive), remains an area for further development; a key issue in the development of quantitative relationships between environmental variables and fish populations as interactions may be counterintuitive (Rose 2000 Table A2. Potential seasonal cod egg production by the spawning stock, egg abundance during main spawning season, larval abundance from ichthyoplankton surveys, recruitment at age 0 from area-disaggregated MSVPA, and reproductive volume in Subdivisions 26 and 28.…”

Section: Applicability Of Stock-recruitment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing Baltic cod recruitment models. II. Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

Köster¹,

Hinrichsen²,

John³

et al. 2001

Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.

101

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Abstract:We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock-recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976-1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models.Résumé : Nous cherchons à savoir si une approche axée sur les processus et basée sur des études de terrain, de laboratoire et de modélisation peut servir à développer un modèle stock-milieu-recrutement pour la morue franche (Gadus morhua) de la Baltique centrale. À la suite d'une analyse statistique exploratoire, des variables significatives qui influençaient la survie des premiers stades et qui variaient systématiquement d'une site de fraie à un autre ont été incorporées dans des modèles de stock-recrutement, d'abord pour les sites de fraie les plus importants et ensuite combinés pour toute la Baltique centrale. Les variables identifiées comprennent la production potentielle d'oeufs par le stock de géniteurs, les conditions abiotiques qui affectent la survie des oeufs, la prédation des oeufs par les clupéidés, le transport des larves et le cannibalisme. Les résultats indiquent que le recrutement durant la période 1976 à 1995 au site de fraie le plus important, le bassin de Bornholm, était en relation avec la production d'oeufs; cependant, d'autres facteurs significatifs affectaient la survie des oeufs (oxygénation, prédation) et, une fois incorporés, ils expliquaient 69% de la variation dans le recrutement du groupe 0. À d'autres sites de fraie, les conditions hydrographiques variables ne permettaient pas un développement normal et réussi des oeufs. Ainsi, des modèles relativement simples se sont avérés adéquats pour prédire le recrutement des morues du groupe 0 dans ces sites, ce qui laisse croire que des processus dominants abiotiques et biotiques peuvent être incorporés avec succès dans les modèles de recrutement.[Traduit par la Rédaction] Köster et al. 1556

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“…The reactions were difficult to explain by climatic changes. Some studies of a single species have suggested that abundance/density peaks are not clearly related to climate and visible during one-two decades interval (Rose, 2000;Penczak, 2011;Matthews et al, 2013). Biomass and density for the whole year, summer, winter, and one year lagged whole year, were not significantly correlated with temperature (Tab.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%