Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast-flowing currents that form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as well as ocean carbon uptake 1-4 . The possibility that these highly energetic currents might change under greenhouse-gas forcing has raised significant concerns 5-7 , but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce the ability of the oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.

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The Bermuda station ''S'' time series has been used to define the variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) from 1954 to 1995. This record, which shows decadal variability at a nominal period of about 12-14 yr, has been used as a baseline for seeking correlation with large-scale atmospheric forcing and with decadal north-south excursions of the Gulf Stream position defined by the subsurface temperature at 200-m depth. A common time period of 1954-89 inclusive, defined by the data sources, shows a high degree of correlation among the STMW potential vorticity (PV), Gulf Stream position, and large-scale atmospheric forcing (buoyancy flux, SST, and sea level pressure). Two pentads with anomalously small and large STMW PV were further studied and composites were made to define a revised North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index associated with the decadal forcing. During years of low PV at Bermuda, the NAO index is low, the Gulf Stream is in a southerly position, and the zero wind stress curl latitude is shifted south as are the composite extratropical winter storm tracks, in comparison to the period of high PV at Bermuda. Because the NAO, Gulf Stream separation latitude, and STMW PV variations are in phase with maximum annually averaged correlation at zero year time lag, the authors hypothesize that all must be either coupled with one another or with some other phenomenon that determines the covariability. A mechanism is proposed that could link all of the above together. It relies on the fact that during periods of high STMW PV, associated with a northerly Gulf Stream and a high NAO, one finds enhanced production of mode water in the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea. Export of the enhanced Labrador Sea Water (LSW) component into the North Atlantic via the Deep Western Boundary Current can influence the separation point of the Gulf Stream in the upper ocean once the signal propagates from the source region to the crossover point with the Gulf Stream. If the SST signal produced by the 100-km shift of the Gulf Stream along a substantial (1000 km) length of its path as it leaves the coast can influence the NAO, a negative feedback oscillation may develop with a timescale proportional to the time delay between the change of phase of the airsea forcing in the Labrador Basin and the LSW transient at the crossover point. Both a simple mechanistic model as well as a three-layer numerical model are used to examine this feedback, which could produce decadal oscillations given a moderately strong coupling.

The spatial distributions of certain sea-surface properties, such as temperature, fluctuate on timescales from months to decades and in synchrony with the main regional atmospheric patterns comprising the global climate system 1 . Although it has long been assumed that the ocean is submissive to the dictates of the atmosphere, recent studies raise the possibility of an assertive, not merely passive, oceanic role in which water-mass circulation controls the timescales of climate fluctuations 2-6 . Previously held notions of the immutability of the physical and chemical characteristics of deep water masses are changing as longer time series of ocean measurements indicate that the signatures of varying sea-surface conditions are translated to deep waters 4,7 . Here we use such time-series measurements to track signals 'imprinted' at the sea surface in the North Atlantic Ocean's subpolar Labrador Basin into the deep water of the subtropical basins near Bermuda, and infer an approximately 6-year transit time. We establish a geographic and temporal context for a portion of the long-term warming trend reported for mid-depth subtropical waters over the past 40 or so years 8,9 , and we predict that waters at these depths will continue to cool well into the next decade.

In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude western boundary current (WBC) systems there is a complex interaction between dynamics and thermodynamics and between atmosphere and ocean. Their potential contribution to the climate system motivated major parallel field programs in both the North Pacific [Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS)] and the North Atlantic [Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Mode Water Dynamics Experiment (CLIMODE)], and preliminary observations and analyses from these programs highlight that complexity. The Gulf Stream (GS) in the North Atlantic and the Kuroshio Extension (KE) in the North Pacific have broad similarities, as subtropical gyre WBCs, but they also have significant differences, which affect the regional air–sea exchange processes and their larger-scale interactions. The 15-yr satellite altimeter data record, which provides a rich source of information, is combined here with the longer historical record from in situ data to describe and compare the current systems. While many important similarities have been noted on the dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of the time-varying GS and KE, some not-so-subtle differences exist in current variability, mode water properties, and recirculation gyre structure. This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of these two current systems from both dynamical and thermodynamical perspectives with the goal of developing and evaluating hypotheses about the physics underlying the observed differences, and exploring the WBC’s potential to influence midlatitude sea–air interaction. Differences between the GS and KE systems offer opportunities to compare the dominant processes and thereby to advance understanding of their role in the climate system.