Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation

Nye, Janet A.; Joyce, Terrence M.; Kwon, Young‐Oh; Link, Jason S.

doi:10.1038/ncomms1420

Cited by 80 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In recent years, the importance of distributional changes in adult fish has been recognized (Lucey and Nye 2010;Nye et al 2010Nye et al , 2011 as have the implications of large-scale distributional shifts for defining management stocks . If a species comprises several subpopulations connected by adult-mediated processes, the dynamics of all populations must be linked to fully understand the dynamics of the species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving beyond the current paradigm in marine population connectivity: are adults the missing link?

2013

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During the past century, the field of fisheries oceanography has dominated the study of population connectivity in marine environments. The influence of physical and biological processes and their relationship to transport and retention of early life history stages has been central in providing insight into population structuring and connectivity. However, the focus on dispersive early life history stages has meant that the role of adults has received less attention and is not fully understood or appreciated. We argue that adults play a vital role in population connectivity for a wide range of marine taxa and hypothesize that adult‐mediated population connectivity commonly results in a diverse array of population structuring. Two case‐studies on winter skate, Leucoraja ocellata, and winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus, are presented to illustrate the role adults play in marine connectivity at both broad and fine scales, respectively. Indeed, if adults are important for population connectivity, we argue that the role of larval processes is conditional on adult choice and only management and research pursuits that integrate the full life cycle of species will capture the full dynamics of metapopulation connectivity. Failure to include the roles of adults can lead to misinterpretation of the causes and consequences of changes in ecosystem structure and fisheries productivity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving beyond the current paradigm in marine population connectivity: are adults the missing link?

2013

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“…It is well correlated with the whole study area mode 1 either being unfiltered (0.8) or low-pass filtered (0.9) and it has been shown to be able to reproduce comparable cross correlations in comparison with climatological indices. The index can be quickly estimated and updated without changes in previous estimates and is a useful measurement of the large-scale shifts in the GS path, which can be related to climate variability (Joyce et al 2009), to changes in some fish stocks (Nye et al 2011), and keystone species (Borkman and Smayda 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two Modes of Gulf Stream Variability Revealed in the Last Two Decades of Satellite Altimeter Data

Pérez‐Hernández

Joyce

2014

Journal of Physical Oceanography

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Monthly mapped sea level anomalies (MSLAs) of the NW Atlantic in the region immediately downstream of the Gulf Stream (GS) separation point reveal a leading mode in which the path shifts approximately 100 km meridionally about a nominal latitude of 398N, producing coherent sea level anomaly (SLA) variability from 728 to 508W. This mode can be captured by use of a simple 16-point index based on SLA data taken along the maximum of the observed variability in the region 338-468N and 458-758W. The GS shifts between 2010 and 2012 are the largest of the last decade and equal to the largest of the entire record. The second group of EOF modes of variability describes GS meanders, which propagate mainly westward interrupted by brief periods of eastward or stationary meanders. These meanders have wavelengths of approximately 400 km and can be seen in standard EOFs by spatial phase shifting of a standing meander pattern in the SLA data. The spectral properties of these modes indicate strong variability at interannual and longer periods for the first mode and periods of a few to several months for the meanders. While the former is quite similar to a previous use of the altimeter for GS path, the simple index is a useful measure of the large-scale shifts in the GS path that is quickly estimated and updated without changes in previous estimates. The time-scale separation allows a lowpass filtered 16-point index to be reflective of large-scale, coherent shifts in the GS path.

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“…Recently, it has been shown that change is not necessarily poleward; there can be a variety of directional responses to local changes in temperature [6]. Range shifts on regional scales are already evident in the North Sea [7] and off the northeastern United States [8]. For a few commercial species on the US Northeastern seaboard, fisheries management strategies have lagged behind their northerly shifts [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal Habitat Index of Many Northwest Atlantic Temperate Species Stays Neutral under Warming Projected for 2030 but Changes Radically by 2060

2014

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Global scale forecasts of range shifts in response to global warming have provided vital insight into predicted species redistribution. We build on that insight by examining whether local warming will affect habitat on spatiotemporal scales relevant to regional agencies. We used generalized additive models to quantify the realized habitat of 46 temperate/boreal marine species using 41+ years of survey data from 35°N–48°N in the Northwest Atlantic. We then estimated change in a “realized thermal habitat index” under short-term (2030) and long-term (2060) warming scenarios. Under the 2030 scenario, ∼10% of species will lose realized thermal habitat at the national scale (USA and Canada) but planktivores are expected to lose significantly in both countries which may result in indirect changes in their predators’ distribution. In contrast, by 2060 in Canada, the realized habitat of 76% of species will change (55% will lose, 21% will gain) while in the USA, the realized habitat of 85% of species will change (65% will lose, 20% will gain). If all else were held constant, the ecosystem is projected to change radically based on thermal habitat alone. The magnitude of the 2060 warming projection (∼1.5–3°C) was observed in 2012 affirming that research is needed on effects of extreme “weather” in addition to increasing mean temperature. Our approach can be used to aggregate at smaller spatial scales where temperate/boreal species are hypothesized to have a greater loss at ∼40°N. The uncertainty associated with climate change forecasts is large, yet resource management agencies still have to address climate change. How? Since many fishery agencies do not plan beyond 5 years, a logical way forward is to incorporate a “realized thermal habitat index” into the stock assessment process. Over time, decisions would be influenced by the amount of suitable thermal habitat, in concert with gradual or extreme warming.

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Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation

Cited by 80 publications

References 31 publications

Moving beyond the current paradigm in marine population connectivity: are adults the missing link?

Moving beyond the current paradigm in marine population connectivity: are adults the missing link?

Two Modes of Gulf Stream Variability Revealed in the Last Two Decades of Satellite Altimeter Data

Thermal Habitat Index of Many Northwest Atlantic Temperate Species Stays Neutral under Warming Projected for 2030 but Changes Radically by 2060

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