Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Hanli; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis

doi:10.1002/2017gl076950

Cited by 68 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…WACCM‐X v. 2.0 is based on CAM4 and WACCM4 physics and chemistry (Marsh et al, ; Neale et al, ), as released in CESM v. 1.0. The simulations shown here were conducted using internal version number 5.4.166, which, for WACCM‐X, is functionally the same as v. 5.4.99, which was used in recent work (Solomon, Liu, et al, ). For descriptions of the original formulation of WACCM and WACCM‐X, and further discussion of chemistry, radiative transfer, and other forcings such as volcanic aerosols, see Marsh et al (, ) and Liu et al ().…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We conducted global simulations of temperature change due to anthropogenic trace gas emissions, which extended from the surface, through the thermosphere and ionosphere, to the exobase. These simulations were done under solar maximum conditions, in order to compare the effect of the solar cycle on global change to previous work using solar minimum conditions. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model‐eXtended was employed in this study. As in previous work, lower atmosphere warming, due to increasing anthropogenic gases, is accompanied by upper atmosphere cooling, starting in the lower stratosphere, and becoming dramatic, almost 2 K per decade for the global mean annual mean, in the thermosphere. This thermospheric cooling, and consequent reduction in density, is less than the almost 3 K per decade for solar minimum conditions calculated in previous simulations. This dependence of global change on solar activity conditions is due to solar‐driven increases in radiationally active gases other than carbon dioxide, such as nitric oxide. An ancillary result of these and previous simulations is an estimate of the solar cycle effect on temperatures as a function of altitude. These simulations used modest, five‐member, ensembles, and measured sea surface temperatures rather than a fully coupled ocean model, so any solar cycle effects were not statistically significant in the lower troposphere. Temperature change from solar minimum to maximum increased from near zero at the tropopause to about 1 K at the stratopause, to approximately 500 K in the upper thermosphere, commensurate with the empirical evidence, and previous numerical models.

show abstract

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, the linear temperature trend resulting from greenhouse gas accumulation may be assessed under perpetual solar minimum condition (Solomon et al, 2018). For example, the linear temperature trend resulting from greenhouse gas accumulation may be assessed under perpetual solar minimum condition (Solomon et al, 2018).…”

Section: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Space Physicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Utilizing meteor wind radar between October 2001 and October 2012 at Svalbard (78°N, 16°E) calibrated by satellite measurements, Hall et al (2012) reported a temperature trend at 90 km of −4 ± 2 K/decade. Unlike the modeling of long-term trend, which typically turns off the effect of solar flux variability by considering perpetual solar minimum condition (Solomon et al, 2018), the observed data by necessity include the effect of solar flux variation in the time series. Like the SABER trend, the data length of these meteor radar trends may be too short for a robust linear trend determination (Laštovička, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Response and Long‐Term Trend of Midlatitude Mesopause Region Temperature Based on 28 Years (1990–2017) of Na Lidar Observations

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We present midlatitude solar response and linear trend from Colorado State University/Utah State University Na lidar nocturnal temperature observations between 1990 and 2017. Along with the nightly mean temperatures (_Ngt), we also use the corresponding 2‐hr means centered at midnight (_2MN), resulting in vertical trend profiles similar in shapes as those previously published. The 28‐year trend from _Ngt (_2MN) data set starts from a small warming at 85 km, to cooling at 87 (88) km, reaching a maximum of 1.85 ± 0.53 (1.09 ± 0.74) at 92 (93) km and turns positive again at 102 (100) km. The 6‐month winter trend is much cooler than the 4‐month summer trend with comparable solar response varying around 5 ± 1 K/100 SFU throughout the profile (85–105 km) with higher summer values. We explore the observed summer/winter trend difference in terms of observed gravity wave heat flux heating rate at a nearby station and the long‐term trend of gravity wave variance at a midlatitude. Between 89 and 100 km, the lidar trends are within the error bars of the Leibniz Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) summer trends (1979–2013), which are nearly identical to the lidar‐Ngt trend. We address the need of long data set for reliable analysis on trend, the extent of trend uncertainty due to possible tidal bias, the effect of a Pinatubo/episodic function, and the impact of stratospheric ozone recovery.

show abstract

“…However, due to change of sensors several times in the M-100 rocketsonde, observed time series is not smooth; thus, data from 1993 to 2017 covering 25 years are used. Solomon et al (2018) used a whole atmosphere model (WACCM-X) to simulate temperature trends from the troposphere to the thermosphere, driven by greenhouse gases. Since these data sets are from different instruments and time periods, they are suitably combined while estimating the standard error.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature in the mesopause region has large interannual variability (Solomon et al, 2018, Figure 3). WACCM-X To understand the long-term trends observed through the measurements over Indian region, WACCM-X model simulations are being used.…”

Section: 1029/2019ja026928mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐Term Trends in the Low‐Latitude Middle Atmosphere Temperature and Winds: Observations and WACCM‐X Model Simulations

2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In recent years, the middle atmosphere has evoked great scientific interest as long‐term changes can be clearly captured owing to the large perturbation amplitudes at these altitudes. In the present study, more than 25 years of the data are used to investigate the long‐term trends in the middle atmosphere by suitably combining the observations from different techniques (Rocketsonde, High‐Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI)/Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE)/UARS, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER)/Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetic Dynamics (TIMED), and Mesosphere‐stratosphere‐troposphere (MST) radar) from Indian region. As different instruments/techniques are used and the time periods are not the same, extreme care has been taken while merging various data sets to obtain meaningful long‐term trends. To understand the observed long‐term trends, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model–eXtended model simulations for the Indian low‐latitude regions are also used. A significant cooling trend of ~−1.7 ± 0.5 K/decade between 30 and 80 km is noticed. Large decreasing trend (~5 m/s/decade) in the eastward winds is noticed which is significant between 70 and 80 km only changing from strong eastward wind in 1970s to weak westward wind in recent decade. No significant trends are observed in the meridional wind. These observations are well captured by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model–eXtended model simulations while considering changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), and chlorofluorocarbon species that cause depletion of stratospheric ozone (O3). Thus, it is prudent to conclude that long‐term decreasing trends in the zonal winds and cooling trends in the temperature in the middle atmosphere are caused to a large extent by greenhouse gases suggesting the role of anthropogenic changes in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere.

show abstract

Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Cited by 68 publications

References 59 publications

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity

Solar Response and Long‐Term Trend of Midlatitude Mesopause Region Temperature Based on 28 Years (1990–2017) of Na Lidar Observations

Long‐Term Trends in the Low‐Latitude Middle Atmosphere Temperature and Winds: Observations and WACCM‐X Model Simulations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About