[1] Thermospheric neutral density and composition exhibit a strong seasonal variation, with maxima near the equinoxes, a primary minimum during northern hemisphere summer, and a secondary minimum during southern hemisphere summer. This pattern of variation is described by thermospheric empirical models. However, the mechanisms are not well understood. The annual insolation variation due to the Sun-Earth distance can cause an annual variation, large-scale interhemispheric circulation can cause a global semiannual variation, and geomagnetic activity can also have a small contribution to the semiannual amplitude. However, simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) indicates that these seasonal effects do not fully account for the observed annual/semiannual amplitude, primarily because of the lack of a minimum during northern hemisphere summer. A candidate for causing this variation is a change in composition, driven by eddy mixing in the mesopause region. Other observations and model studies suggest that eddy diffusion in the mesopause region has a strong seasonal variation, with eddy diffusion larger during solstices than equinoxes, and stronger turbulence in summer than in winter. A seasonal variation of eddy diffusion compatible with this description is obtained. Simulations show that when this function is imposed at the lower boundary of the TIE-GCM, neutral density variation consistent with satellite drag data and O/N 2 consistent with measurements by TIMED/GUVI, are obtained. These model-data comparisons and analyses indicate that turbulent mixing originated from the lower atmosphere may contribute to seasonal variation in the thermosphere, particularly the asymmetry between solstices that cannot be explained by other mechanisms.

[1] Recent measurements of the solar extreme-ultraviolet spectrum provide highresolution spectral irradiance that can be used for calculating ionization and dissociation rates in the upper atmosphere and for providing improved proxy-based models of the solar spectrum. These are crucial inputs for global time-dependent general circulation models of the thermosphere and ionosphere, but computational economies require that a lowerresolution spectrum be used in the calculations without excessive loss of accuracy. The problem is compounded by the photoelectrons generated by ionization, which cause further ionization and dissociation of atmospheric gases. We describe a method for using solar spectral measurements or models to calculate ionization and dissociation rates throughout the upper atmosphere, including photoelectron effects, that is more accurate and more efficient than its predecessors. Examples of use with measurements from the Solar EUV Experiment on the TIMED satellite and with the EUVAC model are given, and an example calculation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model is shown.

Solar activity during 2007–2009 was very low, and during this protracted solar minimum period, the terrestrial thermosphere was cooler and lower in density than expected. Measurements from instruments on the SOHO and TIMED spacecraft, and by suborbital rocket flights, indicate that solar extreme‐ultraviolet irradiance levels were lower than they were during the previous solar minimum. Analysis of atmospheric drag on satellite orbits indicate that the thermosphere was lower in density, and therefore cooler, and than at any time since the beginning of the space age. However, secular change due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which cool the upper atmosphere, also plays a role in thermospheric climate. Simulations by the NCAR Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model are compared to thermospheric density measurements, yielding evidence that the primary cause of the low thermospheric density was the unusually low level of solar extreme‐ultraviolet irradiance.

[1] In atmospheric and space environment studies it is key to understand and to quantify the coupling of atmospheric regions and the solar impacts on the whole atmosphere system. There is thus a need for a numerical model that encompasses the whole atmosphere and can self-consistently simulate the dynamic, physical, chemical, radiative, and electrodynamic processes that are important for the Sun-Earth system. This is the goal for developing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). In this work, we report the development and preliminary validation of the thermospheric extension of WACCM (WACCM-X), which extends from the Earth's surface to the upper thermosphere. The WACCM-X uses the finite volume dynamical core from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model and includes an interactive chemistry module resolving most known neutral chemistry and major ion chemistry in the middle and upper atmosphere, and photolysis and photoionization. Upper atmosphere processes, such as nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium, radiative transfer, auroral processes, ion drag, and molecular diffusion of major and minor species, have been included in the model. We evaluate the model performance by examining the quantities essential for the climate and weather of the upper atmosphere: the mean compositional, thermal, and wind structures from the troposphere to the upper thermosphere and their variability on interannual, seasonal, and daily scales. These quantities are compared with observational and previous model results.

[1] Satellite drag data indicate that the thermosphere was lower in density, and therefore cooler, during the protracted solar minimum period of 2007-2009 than at any other time in the past 47 years. Measurements indicate that solar EUV irradiance was also lower than during the previous solar minimum. However, secular change due to increasing levels of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, which cool the upper atmosphere, also plays a role in thermospheric climate, and changes in geomagnetic activity could also contribute to the lower density. Recent work used solar EUV measurements from the Solar EUV Monitor (SEM) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and the NCAR ThermosphereIonosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, finding good agreement between the density changes from 1996 to 2008 and the changes in solar EUV. Since there is some uncertainty in the long-term calibration of SEM measurements, here we perform model calculations using the MgII core-to-wing ratio as a solar EUV proxy index. We also quantify the contributions of increased CO 2 and decreased geomagnetic activity to the changes. In these simulations, CO 2 and geomagnetic activity play small but significant roles, and the primary cause of the low temperatures and densities remains the unusually low levels of solar EUV irradiance.

[1] Average F 2 -layer electron densities at December solstice are higher than those at June solstice. This phenomenon, which is often called the F 2 -layer annual asymmetry, has been observed for several decades, but its causes are still not fully understood. This study investigates global variations of this annual asymmetry observed from one year of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) measurements. The IRO observations show that there is a strong NmF2 annual asymmetry that has significant longitudinal and local time variations. A strong peak of the asymmetry occurs at about noon and another one at midnight, both located at around 25°geomagnetic latitude. Numerical simulations using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) are in very good agreement with these observations. The modeled NmF2 annual asymmetry has a similar magnitude, and similar semidiurnal and longitudinal variations as those in the observations. TIEGCM simulations show that changes in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation between the December and June solstices and the displacement of the geomagnetic axis from the geographic axis are the two primary processes that cause the annual asymmetry and its associated longitudinal and local time variations. The tides propagating from lower altitudes also contribute to this asymmetry, but to a smaller extent.

[1] Anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases warm the troposphere but have a cooling effect in the middle and upper atmosphere. The steady increase of CO 2 is the dominant cause of upper atmosphere trends; other drivers are long-term changes of radiatively active trace gases such as CH 4 , O 3 , and H 2 O, secular change of solar and geomagnetic activity, and evolution of the Earth's magnetic field. Observational and model studies have confirmed that in the past several decades, global cooling has occurred in the mesosphere and thermosphere; the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere has lowered the ionosphere and increased electron density in the E and F 1 regions. Trends of other parameters, including the F 2 region, mesospheric clouds, and mesopause wave activity, have been more controversial. Modeling investigations have demonstrated that both greenhouse gas forcing and secular change of the Earth's magnetic field can cause regional, diurnal, and seasonal variability of trends in F 2 region density and height, which may contribute to discrepancies regarding ionospheric trends. Recent studies also may have reconciled discrepancies between space-based and ground-based observations of mesospheric clouds: both types of observations do not find statistically significant trends in the ∼54°N-∼64°N latitude region, but space-based observations indicate that clouds may be increasing in frequency at higher latitude. Limited observational studies have suggested possible trends in wave activity. Changes in atmospheric dynamics, both as a consequence of global change in the lower and middle atmosphere and as a possible driver of trends in the upper atmosphere, is one of the critical open questions regarding trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere.

Neutral density shows complicated temporal and spatial variations driven by external forcing of the thermosphere/ionosphere system, internal dynamics, and thermosphere and ionosphere coupling. Temporal variations include abrupt changes with a time scale of minutes to hours, diurnal variation, multi-day variation, solar-rotational variation, annual/semiannual variation, solar-cycle variation, and long-term trends with a time scale of decades. Spatial variations include latitudinal and longitudinal variations, as well as variation with altitude. Atmospheric drag on satellites varies strongly as a function of thermospheric mass density. Errors in estimating density cause orbit prediction error, and impact satellite operations including accurate catalog maintenance, collision avoidance for manned and unmanned space flight, and re-entry prediction. In this paper, we summarize and discuss these density variations, their magnitudes, and their forcing mechanisms, using neutral density data sets and modeling results. The neutral density data sets include neutral density observed by the accelerometers onboard the Challenging Mini-satellite Payload (CHAMP), neutral density at satellite perigees, and global-mean neutral density derived from thousands of orbiting objects. Modeling results are from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE-GCM), and from the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model.