Which Way Forward? Using simulation models and ethnography to understand changing livelihoods among Kenyan pastoralists in a “new commons”

Abstract

Over the last several decades there has been a transformation of the Samburu pastoral commons to new forms of land tenure and use. Government led land adjudication in the 1970s and 1980s established new forms of land ownership including group ranches and, in some places, complete privatization of land into individual parcels. An important question is what forms of land use and social relations emerge in the wake of land adjudication, and with what consequences? Can a "new commons" arise following transformation of the traditional commons? We address these questions by examining the aftermath of privatization in a Samburu community. Through ethnographic observations and interviews, we gain insight into peoples' understanding of land use and current norms and practices and propose two diverse visions of the future -the "pastoralist imperative" of continued extensive livestock production and "future farmers" seeking a more settled, crop and wage labour-based livelihood. Using computer simulation models of the environment and households we conduct scenario analyses tracing the effects of land use practices and choices resulting from these different perspectives on variables such as livestock wealth, household income and food requirements, and ecological resources including grasses and shrubs. Our analysis suggests that privatization has yielded a "new commons" combining elements of individual ownership with shared management. These institutional innovations enable a continuation of extensive livestock production with new livelihood strategies that include a degree of land enclosure such as cultivation and land leasing. The analysis indicates that seemingly contradictory norms and practices 748Carolyn K. Lesorogol and Randall B. Boone can co-exist on the same land allowing considerable flexibility in production of livestock and crops. However, the models also demonstrate the limits that may be reached, particularly if common access is heavily curtailed.

Well-being and conservation: diversity and change in visions of a good life among the Maasai of northern Tanzania

“…As in all social groups, ideas about well-being are being negotiated, as traditional and new identities meet. The outcomes of this process for pastoralism and fragmentation of the rangelands are uncertain, especially because, as Lesorogol and Boone (2016) also found for Samburu, the preferences for private, agricultural land versus communal, grazing land in young and older men, respectively, are not absolute and vary.…”

The “new pastoral commons” of Eastern and Southern Africa

“…How boundaries are defined in cases in which communal rights are re-asserted in an informal manner as described by Archambault (2016), Galaty (2016) and Lesorogol and Boone (2016) is more difficult to say. Is there any perception of inclusion and exclusion in such networks?…”

Drought frequency, conservancies, and pastoral household well-being

“…To address scenarios in western Samburu County, we used a very detailed ecosystem model called Savanna (Coughenour 1992) in Boone and Lesorogol (2016) and Lesorogol and Boone (2016) joined with an agent-based model called DECUMA to represent human decision making. Savanna is powerful but requires significant investment of time and resources to apply to an area.…”