Where do parties go when they die? The fate of failed parties in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary 1992–2013

Abstract

no AbstractIn the two decades that have passed since the collapse of communism, 39 parties crossed the electoral threshold in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Of these, 23 subsequently failed. Only two parties managed to return on their own (one failed again). One is represented as part of an electoral alliance. Some have merged with other parties, some have ceased to exist, and some maintain a twilight existence. We map and analyse the fate of parties that have fallen below the electoral threshold, and explore why some parties cease operations relatively quickly while others soldier on or maintain a 'zombie-like' existence. The core factors are the opportunity structures provided by other parties in terms of offers of alliances, mergers and/or new homes for the party elites; the existence of alternative arenas for competition than the national legislature (or national party lists); and the organisational strength of the party that falls below the threshold. is why we focus on these three particular countries. 1 In an earlier article in this journal (Bakke and Sitter 2013) we explained why parties in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary failed to win re-election. 2 We concluded that small size and formal splits were the most important risk factors, and that (contrary to our expectations) participation in government as a junior partner primarily had an indirect effect: it tended to cause splits that led to failure, rather than lead directly to failure through loss of popularity. In addition several parties suffered from the declining salience of the political issues around which they were built (notably regional and nationalist parties), and a crowding-out effect from bigger and better managed competitors. We thus argued (in line with amongst others Harmel and Janda 1994, In the present article we ask what happened to the party organisation and the elites after the parties fell below the threshold, or more specifically why some parties become defunct within one election period of falling out, while others survive longer outside parliament. We suggest that death or survival depends on the strategic choices of the party elites, and on how these are shaped by institutional factors, the opportunity structure provided

Perspectives on political party death: theorizing and testing Downsian and sociological rationales

“…Finally, with some adaptations, our framework can be made useful for understanding party survival and death in countries with less stable party systems such as in Central and Eastern Europe. While the literature has made important advances in explaining the electoral persistence of parties there (Grzymala-Busse, 2006; Tavits, 2013), research on the organizational survival and death of parties has been less prominent (but see Bakke and Sitter, 2015; Casal Bértoa and Spirova, 2017; Obert and Müller, 2017). In line with our Downsian account, Obert and Müller (2017) find that legislative representation reduces the chances of party death, so does access to state funding.…”

“…Cross-national research on advanced democracies has produced excellent work on new party formation and entry, their electoral, and parliamentary performance as well as government participation (see, for instance, Hug, 2001; Heinisch, 2003; Tavits, 2006; Bolin, 2007; Meguid, 2007; Deschouwer, 2008; McDonnell and Newell, 2011; Spoon, 2011; Akkerman and de Lange, 2012; Biezen and Rashkova, 2014). However, more fundamental questions about the survival of new parties are surprisingly rarely dealt with (but see on old democracies Collignon, 2018; Lowery et al , 2013; Rose and Mackie, 1988; on new democracies Bakke and Sitter, 2015; Deegan-Krause and Haughton, 2015; Cyr, 2016; Casal Bértoa and Spirova, 2017). Drivers of party death and survival shed light on the fundamental question of how we should theorize what political parties are.…”

Is the “new” always “new”? Theoretical framework problems of new political parties’ research: The Czech Republic experience

“…It is not only the emergence but also the decline of political parties that is crucial for the development of the party system. However, these are two completely different processes that are subject to a different logic and need to be thoroughly distinguished in this context (see Hug 2000, Bolleyer 2013 or Bakke -Sitter 2015). In particular, it is fundamental that when talking about new political parties and approaches to their analysis, party novelty is an umbrella concept, rather than a variation on a separate party family (Litton 2015: 713).…”

“…4 This means that today a new political party needs more voters than its members for its potential electoral success. At the same time, on the other hand, it means that, in the event of difficulties 5 , it may be members, sympathizers and volunteers who can help the party to a certain extent (for example Bakke -Sitter 2015or Cirhan -Stauber 2018.…”

Assured Newcomers on a Squally Sea? The Czech Pirate Party before and after the 2017 Elections

“…the Austrian Team Stronach, or some Pirate parties). Central Europe is not an exception to this trend (see Bakke, Sitter 2015;Filipec 2019;Kosowska-Gąstoł, Sobolewska-Myślik 2017or Marušiak 2017. Even the Czech Republic has experienced significant transformations of the party system in recent years connected with the successful breakthrough of newcomers; thus, it has not lagged behind in this respect (see Polášek et al 2014: 148 or Chavát, Just 2016.…”