When the weather turned bad. The research of climate impacts on society and economy during the Little Ice Age in Europe. An overview

Abstract

This paper focusses on historical climate impact research, one of the branches of historical climatology with an emphasis on the Little Ice Age. It provides examples of the theoretical concepts, models, and further structuring considerations that are used in historical climate impact research, which are especially fitting to the examined period. We distinguish between the impact of climate on society by time-scale in long-term, conjunctural or medium-term, and short-term impacts. Moreover, a simplified climate-society interaction model developed by Daniel Krämer is presented, as well as the concept of the Little Ice Age-type Impact (LIATIMP) by Christian Pfister and the vulnerability concept regarding climatic variability and extreme weather events. Furthermore, the paper includes a state-of-the-art application of the historical climate impact research and discussion of research gaps.

The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices

“…only 16% of the tithe variance is predictable by price) (Bauernfeind and Woitek 1996). However, during medieval times, with less developed markets, studies for England suggest stronger yield-price relationships (Campbell 2010(Campbell , 2016Camenisch 2015;Bekar 2019).…”

Climate and society in European history

“…However, even comparatively advanced economies in medieval and early modern Europe, in fertile agricultural areas, could occasionally suffer famines during particularly unfavorable conditions (e.g., for Italy, see Alfani, 2010, 2018; Bauch, 2016; Nanni, 2020), especially during periods of armed conflicts or other disturbances (Parker, 2013). Except for societies with an especially high vulnerability to food shortages, the occurrence of climate‐triggered famines typically required adverse climate conditions lasting at least 2 years, with some of the worst famines resulting from three (or more) consecutive years of extremely adverse climate conditions for agriculture (Alfani & Ó Gráda, 2017; Camenisch & Rohr, 2018).…”

Complexity in crisis: The volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and the consequences of Scotland's failure to cope

“…Documentary data for mainland Europe also describe unusually low temperatures, crop failures and famine at this time, indicating that causes for these events were not merely local but interregional in extent (Lamb 1995). For example, severe food shortages were documented in Estonia, Sweden and Finland (the Great Famine, 1695, Lappalainen 2012, Lappalainen 2014, Huhtamaa and Helama 2017 and throughout large stretches of western Europe (Ladurie 1971, Appleby 1979, 1980, Bellettini 1987, Pfister 1988, Glaser 1993, Lamb 1995, Kington 1999, Slavin 2016, Huhtamaa and Helama 2017, Camenisch and Rohr 2018, DeGroot 2018, but with notable exceptions for England and parts of Ireland and the Netherlands (Wrigley and Schofield 1981, Walter and Schofield 1989, Clarkson and Crawford 2001, Hoyle 2013, Dijkman 2017, Curtis and Dijkman 2017. Concurrently, more sea ice was reported in Iceland in the 1690s than in any other decade of the seventeenth century and only one "good" winter (1698) was observed there between 1694 and 1700 (Ogilvie 1992).…”

“…The decade of the 1690s is known to have been unusually cold with associated widespread crop failures, food shortages and mortality crises in many areas of Europe (Ladurie 1971, Appleby 1979, 1980, Bellettini 1987, Pfister 1988, Glaser 1993, Lamb 1995, Kington 1999, Slavin 2016, Huhtamaa and Helama 2016, Huhtamaa and Helama 2017, Alfani, Mocarelli and Stangio 2018, Camenisch and Rohr 2018, DeGroot 2018.…”