Complexity in crisis: The volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and the consequences of Scotland's failure to cope

Abstract

Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the

Climate-induced treeline mortality during the termination of the Little Ice Age in the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion, USA

“…The two coldest periods of the middle-to-late LIA were 1690–1709 and 1832–1851 CE, corresponding to the Maunder and Dalton solar minima and with volcanically-forced cool periods (Anchukaitis et al, 2017; Crowley, 2000; Crowley et al, 2008; D’Arrigo et al, 2020; Wagner and Zorita, 2005; Wilson et al, 2016) noted in other regional reconstructions in the western US and Canada (Luckman and Wilson, 2005; Salzer et al, 2014; Wilson et al, 2014). The cold and snowy Maunder Minimum especially limited establishment and led to mortality and decreased growth in both species (Figures 2e–g and 5).…”

Climate and society in European history

“…Especially in Finland, such conditions could cause wide harvest losses if the crops did not ripen before the first autumn frosts (Holopainen & Helama, 2009; Huhtamaa, 2018). Moreover, as the cultivation depended heavily on local production, also regarding seed grain, crop yields could remain low for a couple years after harvest failures due to a lack of seed grains (D'Arrigo et al, 2020; Dodgshon, 2004; Dybdahl, 2012; Huhtamaa & Helama, 2017a). The main agriculture areas of Sweden demonstrated a more diverse sensitivity to climate variability, with high January–April temperatures in combination with high June–July precipitation being favorable for high grain yields (Edvinsson, Leijonhufvud, & Söderberg, 2009).…”

“…Furthermore, very rainy weather during the hay harvest lowered the raw protein content of the hay by up to two‐thirds, resulting in starvation among the animals the next winter (Pfister, 2005). Alternatively, continuous harvest time rains could rot the cut hay on the fields, resulting in poor quantity and quality of hay‐stocks for the winter (D'Arrigo et al, 2020).…”

“…Many first‐order impact studies focus on certain crisis events, like the Great Famine (1315–1322; Aberth, 2001; Huhtamaa, 2020; Slavin, 2017) or the Late Medieval Crisis more generally (Campbell, 2009, 2010, 2016; Fraser, 2011; Gerrard & Petley, 2013; Hoffmann, 2014). In addition, for example the cold periods of the 1430s (Camenisch, 2015a; Camenisch, 2015b; Camenisch et al, 2016) and the 1690s (Cullen, 2010; D'Arrigo, Klinger, Newfield, Rydval, & Wilson, 2020), and production failures following particular volcanic eruptions, like the 1257 Samalas eruption (Bauch, 2019; Campbell, 2017; Guillet et al, 2017; Stothers, 2000), have received considerable attention. Furthermore, studies on extreme drought or flood events commonly include discussion about impacts on the grain harvest (see, e.g., Kiss, 2019; Kiss, Piti, Sebok, & Teiszler, 2020; Pribyl & Cornes, 2020; Stone, 2014).…”

“…The amount and seasonality of precipitation also played a role in the production of animal protein (Michaelowa, 2001). Drought in spring and summer decreased the quality and quantity of pastures and hay yields even in relatively humid locations such as England and Scotland (D'Arrigo et al, 2020; Stone, 2014). Whereas the 1540 drought had no impact on grain and wine harvests in Switzerland, it had a devastating impact on animal husbandry, as domestic animals died from heat‐stroke, thirst or hunger (Wetter et al, 2014).…”