The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls

Abstract. This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

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Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, ( hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13) regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 Bprobably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540

Abstract. Narrative evidence contained within historical documents and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however, considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) CRIAS working group – a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world's oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy climate reconstructions.

Menschliche Gesellschaften sind in hohem Mass dem Klima und dem Witterungsverlauf ausgesetzt. Dies gilt insbesondere für die vorindustrielle Zeit. Im vorliegenden Band stellt die Autorin eine umfangreiche und detaillierte Klimarekonstruktion für den Raum der Burgundischen Niederlande im 15. Jahrhundert vor. Diese umfasst einerseits detaillierte Beschreibungen aus zeitgenössischen Quellen und andererseits Temperatur- sowie Niederschlagsindices in saisonaler Auflösung. Die Klimarekonstruktion dient als Untersuchungsgrundlage für die Frage nach dem Einfluss des Witterungsver­laufes auf die Wirtschaft in den Burgundischen Niederlanden. Getreidepreise stellen im Spätmittelalter den zuverlässigsten Konjunkturbarometer dar und sind darüber hinaus in grosser Zahl überliefert. Getreide – ein unverzichtbares Grundnahrungsmittel und wichtiges Massenhandelsgut – ist einen Grossteil des Jahres auf den Äckern direkt der Witterung ausgesetzt. Eine statistische Auswertung von Preisreihen verschiedener Getreidearten und den saisonalen Indices zeigt den teilweise sehr engen Zusammenhang beider Grössen auf. Allerdings stellt der Witterungsverlauf nur einen von vielen Faktoren dar, die Einfluss auf die ­Getreidepreiskonjunktur nehmen. Diese anderen Faktoren werden detailliert vorgestellt und diskutiert. Drei Phasen mit sehr hohen Getreidepreisen – die Hungerkrisen der zweiten Hälfte der 1430er, zu Beginn der 1480er und im Übergang der 1480er zu den 1490er Jahren – fallen im Verlaufe des 15. Jahrhunderts auf. Die Autorin legt dar, welche weiteren relevanten Faktoren im zeitlichen und geographischen Umfeld dieser Hungerkrisen neben dem Witterungsverlauf eine Rolle für den exzessiven Getreidepreisanstieg spielten.

This paper focusses on historical climate impact research, one of the branches of historical climatology with an emphasis on the Little Ice Age. It provides examples of the theoretical concepts, models, and further structuring considerations that are used in historical climate impact research, which are especially fitting to the examined period. We distinguish between the impact of climate on society by time-scale in long-term, conjunctural or medium-term, and short-term impacts. Moreover, a simplified climate-society interaction model developed by Daniel Krämer is presented, as well as the concept of the Little Ice Age-type Impact (LIATIMP) by Christian Pfister and the vulnerability concept regarding climatic variability and extreme weather events. Furthermore, the paper includes a state-of-the-art application of the historical climate impact research and discussion of research gaps.