What drives interstate balancing? Estimations of domestic and systemic factors

Abstract

This paper reviews contending realist assumptions about domestic and systemic impulses for balancing behavior, derives a set of corresponding hypotheses for state actions and submits them to a statistical large-n analysis for testing. A total of 18 highly conflict-prone dyads of states are observed over lengthy periods of time in order to gather data for a regression analysis of the effects of different impulses on both the external and internal balancing behavior of the weaker states. In accordance with the results, it is argued that domestic (or unit-level) factors are highly important in explaining the scope of balancing and often exert a stronger influence than do power gaps between states. As moderating factors, they are especially crucial in clarifying apparent cases of over-and underbalancing.

China as a Threat and Balancing Behavior in the Realm of Emerging Technologies

“…This reasoning allows us to facilitate our understanding of balancing as a gradual process with different intensities and manifestations, which, when analyzed jointly, demonstrate a coordinated balancing behavior. Given that external balancing represents the strategy of seeking allies for the common cause of confronting a shared threat (Abb 2018), or as Waltz (1987, p. 118) describes it, "moves to strengthen and enlarge one's own alliance or to weaken and shrink an opposing one", external balancing is, thus, approached as a gradual strengthening process (Ross 2006). By adapting the framework of balancing intensity by Roy (2005) that accounts for different levels of balancing intensity targeted toward the perceived threat, we distinguish between high, moderate, and low balancing as gradual manifestations.…”