What Can Politics Learn from Management Decisions? A Case Study of Germany’s Exit from Nuclear Energy after Fukushima

Abstract

The devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, which was triggered by a tsunami in the wake of an earthquake, resulted in the decision to quickly phase out nuclear power and with it implicitly accelerated the German Energiewende (energy transition). To the outside observer, the decision appeared to be spontaneous and possibly due to a distorted perception of the associated risks of nuclear power. From the decision results not only the limiting uses of private property by conventional energy providers, but the exit from nuclear energy has also implications for the energy market. As with every human, political actors decide under uncertainty and incomplete information. Based on these parameters, we emphasize that the decision of a political actor is comparable to management decision-making. The paper takes this as an opportunity to examine the political decision to phase-out nuclear energy by discussing relevant parameters from the perspective of decision theory. We plead for a mandatory consideration of economic findings, especially from decision theory and risk management in political decision-making processes, especially in matters that affect future generations.

Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management

“…From the given incomplete conditions of every decision scenario, we deduce that tools developed in the entrepreneurial context can also provide support for politicians. Gleißner et al (2021) or Follert, Gleißner and Möst (2021) [ 8 , 34 ] have already shown which parameters can be of importance here. In this respect, an analysis from the perspective of business economics can possibly provide an initial starting point for a political decision without prejudging it.…”

“…It should be noted that our approach is intended only as a first benchmark, e.g., [ 34 ]. We show how homo oeconomicus would make decisions rationally, under risk-adjusted valuation and with weighing of expected costs and benefits.…”

Learning from Neighbors: The Spatial Spillover Effect of Crisis Learning on Local Government

“…Political pressure is an important factor in the non-linear relationship between major accidents and the crisis learning effects of local governments. Specifically, the occurrence of major accidents is situated in a specific political arena, and the post-disaster political environment, which is composed of multiple streams of forces such as focal events, public opinion, and stakeholder groups, constructs the causal chain of the accident and the direction of learning for public organizations [67,68]. How political factors influence the crisis learning effect depends on the specific characteristics of political involvement.…”

German Dependency on Russian Gas

“…höht. Durch die sogenannte Energiewende und den -als Entscheidung unter Kosten-Nutzen-Erwägungen kaum nachvollziehbaren -vorgezogenen Ausstieg aus der Nutzung der Kernenergie 2011(Follert et al, 2021) hat sich die Abhängigkeit von russischem Gas erhöht.Gleichzeitig wurden Alternativen wie etwa der risikodiversifi zierende Bezug von Erdgas aus dem arabischen Raum zunehmend infrage gestellt. Da auf absehbare Zeit selbst bei weiterem Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien keine adäquaten Speichermöglichkeiten zur Verfügung stehen dürften, benötigt man entweder grundlastfähige Kraftwerke oder fl exibel nutzbare Kraftwerke, die bei Engpässen durch einen Mangel an Wind und Sonne schnell hinzugeschaltet werden können.…”

“…Abschließend sei auf eine wichtige Limitation der Analyse hingewiesen: In unserem Plädoyer für eine Berücksichtigung der Erkenntnisse des Risikomanagements im politischen Entscheidungsprozess gehen wir überwiegend von eindeutigen und nicht konfl igierenden Zielen aus. Dies ist eine starke Vereinfachung der Realität, in der sich Politiker:innen off enen Entscheidungsfeldern mit unbekannten Ursache-Wirkungsbeziehungen, Zielkonfl ikten und anderen Unvollkommenheiten gegenübersehen(Follert et al, 2021;Daumann et al, 2022). Grundsätzlich gilt dabei das Primat der Politik, sodass auch andere Maßstäbe als eine ökonomische Risikobewertung in das Entscheidungskalkül einfl ießen können.…”