Based on risk-value models we introduce a multi-period approach to the valuation of streams of risky cash flows. The valuation is based on the (expected) value of the output's or input's magnitude and the risk of the output cash flow, as captured by a risk measure. We derive three formulae for valuing single cash flows and utilize the principles of separate valuation and of cumulating the cash flows to derive a multi-period valuation method. In an axiomatic way, the article sets the foundations for a new approach and suggests several directions for its further development.

Worldwide, politicians, scientists, and entrepreneurs are operating under high uncertainty and incomplete information regarding the adequacy of measures to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems indisputable that only widespread and global immunity can bring normalization to social life. In this respect, the development of a vaccine was a milestone in pandemic control. However, within the EU, especially in Germany, the vaccination plan is increasingly faltering, and criticism is growing louder. This paper considers the EU’s political decision in general and the decisions of the German government to procure vaccine doses against the background of modern economics as a decision under uncertainty and critically analyzes the process.

Financial sustainability is underrepresented in both the research on and practice of sustainability management and reporting. This article proposes a conceptual measure of financial sustainability and examines its association with capital market returns. The measure is positioned at the intersection of sustainability management, risk management and risk governance. Financial sustainability is regarded as a crucial control parameter complementing shareholder value and can be viewed by risk-averse investors as a secondary condition of investment decisions. It reduces refinancing and insolvency risks, leading to risk-adjusted excess returns in an imperfect capital market with financing restrictions and insolvency costs. We propose measuring a firm’s financial sustainability in terms of four conditions: (1) firm growth, (2) the company’s ability to survive, (3) an acceptable overall level of earnings risk exposure, and (4) an attractive earnings risk profile. We show that the application of a conditions-based investment strategy to European firms with high financial sustainability (i.e., firms fulfilling all four conditions) over the period from July 1990 to June 2019 results in monthly excess returns of 0.39%. This portfolio’s risk is lower than the risk of market investment. We find that the excess returns increase when incrementally adding each of the four conditions to the investment strategy.

Purpose This paper aims to present the combination of enterprise risk management (ERM) and value-based management as especially suitable methods for companies with a shareholder value imperative. Among its major benefits, these methods make the contribution of risk management for business decisions more effective. Design/methodology/approach Any possible inconsistencies between ERM, generating value because of imperfect capital markets and the CAPM to calculate cost of capital, which assumes perfect markets, must be avoided. Therefore, it is imperative that valuation methods used are based on risk analysis, and thus do not require perfect capital markets. Findings Value-based risk management requires the impact of changes in risk on enterprise value to be calculated and the aggregation of opportunities and risks related to planning to calculate total risk (using Monte Carlo simulation) and valuation techniques that reflect the effects changes in risk, on probability of default, cost of capital and enterprise value (and do not assume perfect capital markets). It is recommended that all relevant risks should be quantified and described using adequate probability distributions derived from the best information. Practical implications This approach can help to improve the use of risk analysis in decision-making by improving existing risk-management systems. Originality/value This extension of ERM is outlined to provide risk-adequate evaluation methods for business decisions, using Monte Carlo simulation and recently developed methods for risk–fair valuation with incomplete replication in combination with the probability of default. It is shown that quantification of all risk using available information should be accepted for the linking of risk analysis and business decisions.