Political Decision Making in the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany from the Perspective of Risk Management

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is permanently changing modern social and economic coexistence. Most governments have declared infection control to be their top priority while citizens face great restrictions on their civil rights. A pandemic is an exemplary scenario in which political actors must decide about future, and thus uncertain, events. This paper tries to present a tool well established in the field of entrepreneurial and management decision making which could also be a first benchmark for political decisions. Our approach builds on the standard epidemiological SEIR model in combination with simulation techniques used in risk management. By our case study we want to demonstrate the opportunities that risk management techniques, especially risk analyses using Monte Carlo simulation, can provide to policy makers in general, and in a public health crisis in particular. Hence, our case study can be used as a framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty. Overall, we want to point out that a health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. This is without prejudice to the integration of ethical considerations in the final political decision.

A Longitudinal Study on Loneliness during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

“…The varying effects of health safety measures across countries may put decision makers in a dilemma, as their policy may warrant higher levels of loneliness or might erode public trust. Daumann et al [ 27 ] recommended framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty and suggested that health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. Japan has experienced a total of seven COVID waves in total, and the level of social distancing measures and lockdowns varied to some extent in each of the waves.…”

Learning from corporate governance: First conceptualization of a liability for political decision‐making

“…Research in the field of (corporate) risk management, including decision and valuation theory, has developed a broad set of tools for dealing with uncertainty in the context of business decisions, which should also be part of conscientious political decision‐making, such as quantitative risk analysis, with the help of Monte Carlo simulation (e.g., Hertz, 1964). However, the quantitative risk assessment does not exclude the extension of objectives to include normative aspects and does not adequately restrict the freedom of political actors (e.g., Daumann et al, 2022).…”

“…On the one hand, such a procedure allows the documentation of all available and relevant information at the time of the decision, as well as its evaluation, and can serve as relief for the political actor (e.g., Daumann et al, 2022; Gleißner, Follert, et al, 2021). On the other hand, the critical parameters are once again brought to the attention of the political decision‐maker, which makes serious preparation for the decision more likely and can promote a higher standard of care.…”

Cost-effectiveness of future lockdown policies against the COVID-19 pandemic

“…The decision-making situation faced by policymakers during the coronavirus crisis is characterized by ignorance and difficult to quantify uncertainty. 7 , 8 Before the announcements about the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, decision-makers lacked information to determine the probability of one or more COVID-19 vaccines of getting approval, timing of approval, and efficacy particularly with regard to severe COVID-19 cases. Current uncertainties revolve around the ability of the vaccine(s) to prevent transmission of new variant strains, the benefits and harms in children, and whether new variant strains will render approved vaccines less effective.…”