Weapons of Mass Disruption

Levi, Michael; Kelly, H C

doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1102-76

Cited by 29 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…That could be true; however, under some circumstances, staying indoors would reduce dermal exposure and inhalation. 13 Unless citizens recognize this possibility, ahead of any incidents, authorities may have difficulty credibly recommending it under crisis conditions. People who confidently believe that they must evacuate immediately might just flee, without waiting or asking for advice.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Success of Terror Risk Communications

Fischhoff

Gonzalez²,

Small³

et al. 2003

Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, an

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Success of Terror Risk Communications

Fischhoff

Gonzalez²,

Small³

et al. 2003

Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, an

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“…As a result, it is unclear how seriously to take any of its details. For example, panic is very unusual in disasters (Wessely, 2005), despite its popularity in the popular mind and among non-social scientists (Fox, 2006;Levi and Kelly, 2002). The scenario's prediction of social disorder could reflect a fundamental misunderstanding that undermines its overall credibility.…”

Section: Disaster Planning Contextmentioning

confidence: 95%

Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

et al. 2006

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Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006Scenarios, Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Judgment, Avian flu,

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“…And unlike nuclear weapons, the materials required for a radiological weapon are widely used in 'unsecured' civilian applications such as medical imaging equipment. Although not usually included in the WMD threat template, radiological weapons could impose significant financial costs on the target state and would be an ideal terrorist weapon in severely disrupting public health and safety among a target population (Levi and Kelly 2002). As in the case of a complete nuclear warhead, however, terrorist groups would still confront significant challenges in transporting a radiological device over land, sea, or air and delivering that device against an assigned target.…”

Section: Starting From Scratchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction: How serious is the threat?

O’Neil¹

2003

Australian Journal of International Affairs

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This article examines the extent to which terrorist use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons poses a tangible threat to international security. In the literature on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) some analysts have tended to exaggerate the scope of the threat and assumed that large-scale terrorist acts involving WMD are only 'a matter of time'. In short, there is a tendency among observers to converge on analogous assessments at the higher end of the threat spectrum. In this article I argue that although WMD terrorism remains a real prospect, the ease with which such attacks can be carried out has been exaggerated; acquiring WMD capabilities for delivery against targets is a lot more problematic for terrorists than is generally acknowledged in the literature. However, this is not to say that the possibility of such attacks can (or should) be ruled out. The rise of a 'new' brand of terrorism that operates across transnational networks and whose operations aim to inflict mass casualties, coupled with the destructive threshold crossed on 11 September 2001, mean that terrorist attacks using WMD will continue to be a realistic prospect in the future.

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Weapons of Mass Disruption

Cited by 29 publications

References 1 publication

Evaluating the Success of Terror Risk Communications

Evaluating the Success of Terror Risk Communications

Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example

Terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction: How serious is the threat?

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