Water Scarcity And Water Trade: An Analysis Of The Determinants Of Virtual Water Flows To The Gcc Countries

Abstract

W ith projected populations of about 633 million in the Arab region in 2050, water resources per capita are expected to drop to a level of about 470 cubic meters in region, compared with a wor ld average of about 4,700 m3 for the same year (S adik, 2013). Especiall y, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face the most severe water shor tages in the region which represents a serious threat to the region's human securit y (Al-Zubari, 2008; D ziuban, 2011). W ith such diminishing per capita water resources, GCC countries rel y on impor ts to meet the increasing food demand for the growing population, while they impor t more than 80 percent of their total food consumption (FAO, 2013). A look at the existing literature shows that vir tual water, termed by (Allan, 1997), has al ways been suggested as a means of overcoming water shor tage in water scared countries (Hoekstra and Hung 2002; El-S adek 2010; Aldaya et al, 2010; Dalin et al. 2012). Few studies however have so far examined the determinants of vir tual water flows into the GCC countries. Moreover, previous anal yses used high aggregated level of data (developing countries, and the Midd le-East region) and in most of cases the GCC countries were neither full y covered nor proper l y anal y z ed. The present paper is original and novel in that it provides a fresh perspective to the debate on the vir tual water by focusing on the six GCC countries. To this end, the paper uses a cross-sectional dataset within a gravit y model framework to examine the determinants of food impor ts by the GCC countries from their traditional trading par tners while placing special focus on the impor tance of water scarcit y related variables in explaining their food impor t pattern. Results show that coefficients on the traditional determinants of trade inc luding per capita GDP, population and distance are in line with the gravit y model hypotheses. Most impor tantl y, water-scarcit y related variables have the expected signs and plausible. S peciall y, a negative and statisticall y significant relationship exists between the percentage of water allocated to agricultural pur poses and food impor ts by GCC countries. Moreover, the results indicate that the high the pressure on the renewable water resources, the more the food impor ts of the GCC countries expand. W hile water shor tage is expected to increase during the coming decades, food impor ts in the GCC countries, therefore, would also continue to increase. The study conc ludes that GCC countries should respond proactivel y by negotiating food and agricultural trade agreements with potential food suppliers of food and to utiliz e overseas agro-food investments in order to ensure privileged access to food production and to cope with the likel y negative impacts addressed by the increased water scarcit y.

Sustainability Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis of Thermally Enhanced Polymer Tube for Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) Technology

“…The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have less than 100 m 3 /year/capita of renewable water resources, falling into a minimum survival level [1,2]. The GCC's reliance on desalination is growing and additional desalination units need to be installed hybrid increases LDPE's conductivity from 0.29 to 5.78 W/(m•K), corresponding to the enhancement of~2000% and 580% over the conductivity of neat LLDP and composite with same filler loading without filler alignment control, respectively.…”

“…The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have less than 100 m 3 /year/capita of renewable water resources, falling into a minimum survival level [ 1 , 2 ]. The GCC’s reliance on desalination is growing and additional desalination units need to be installed to overcome the increasing freshwater demands associated with the increased population and industrial activities [ 3 ].…”