The European Union (EU) is the major import market for Egyptian fresh potatoes. Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) jointly imported about 44% of Egyptian potato exports to the EU during the period 1994-2012. This study sought to identify the determinants of import demand for Egyptian potatoes in these two countries. A general differentiated demand system approach was used to estimate conditional potato import demand per country. For each country, it was assumed that the system of conditional import demand equations for potatoes is specified according to the sources of origin and also depends on all imported potato prices and total import potato expenditure. When estimated econometrically, this import demand model allows conditional price and expenditure elasticities to be derived. The econometric results indicated that with an estimated elasticity of 1.95, Egyptian potato exports responded significantly to total expenditure on imported potatoes by Germany. On the other hand, Egyptian potato exports to Germany did not exhibit significant price responses. In all cases but one, estimated conditional uncompensated price elasticities were not statistically different from zero. However, more interesting results were obtained concerning the price responses of Egyptian potato exports to the UK, whereby the conditional (uncompensated) direct elasticity of potato imports from Egypt to the UK (-0.71) showed an inelastic response to its own price. Furthermore, Egyptian potato exports seemed to compete on the UK market with potatoes originating from Israel and France, while they displayed complementarity with Dutch imports.
This study investigates the association between individuals’ concern about contracting COVID-19 and their compliance with recommended preventive and mitigation measures, namely wearing face masks, maintaining social distancing and handwashing, in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey, which was carried out in Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Egypt. Applying a probit estimation technique, a positive and statistically significant association was found between the level of COVID-19 worries and individuals’ compliance with the mitigation measures. Notably, the results revealed that this association followed a “first-up-then-down” trend, showing that compliance with the three mitigation measures rose as individuals’ worries about contracting the virus increased, and then markedly decreased after they had been infected. Socio-demographic characteristics contributing to lower levels of compliance included being male, being over 60, having lower levels of education and having a lower household income. A cross-country analysis revealed remarkable differences between the five countries, with the strongest association between COVID-19 concerns and adherence to mitigation measures observed in Tunisia and Sudan, and the weakest association seen in Jordan and Morocco. Policy implications are outlined for effective risk communication and management during disease outbreaks and public health emergencies to encourage appropriate public health behaviours.
W ith projected populations of about 633 million in the Arab region in 2050, water resources per capita are expected to drop to a level of about 470 cubic meters in region, compared with a wor ld average of about 4,700 m3 for the same year (S adik, 2013). Especiall y, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face the most severe water shor tages in the region which represents a serious threat to the region's human securit y (Al-Zubari, 2008; D ziuban, 2011). W ith such diminishing per capita water resources, GCC countries rel y on impor ts to meet the increasing food demand for the growing population, while they impor t more than 80 percent of their total food consumption (FAO, 2013). A look at the existing literature shows that vir tual water, termed by (Allan, 1997), has al ways been suggested as a means of overcoming water shor tage in water scared countries (Hoekstra and Hung 2002; El-S adek 2010; Aldaya et al, 2010; Dalin et al. 2012). Few studies however have so far examined the determinants of vir tual water flows into the GCC countries. Moreover, previous anal yses used high aggregated level of data (developing countries, and the Midd le-East region) and in most of cases the GCC countries were neither full y covered nor proper l y anal y z ed. The present paper is original and novel in that it provides a fresh perspective to the debate on the vir tual water by focusing on the six GCC countries. To this end, the paper uses a cross-sectional dataset within a gravit y model framework to examine the determinants of food impor ts by the GCC countries from their traditional trading par tners while placing special focus on the impor tance of water scarcit y related variables in explaining their food impor t pattern. Results show that coefficients on the traditional determinants of trade inc luding per capita GDP, population and distance are in line with the gravit y model hypotheses. Most impor tantl y, water-scarcit y related variables have the expected signs and plausible. S peciall y, a negative and statisticall y significant relationship exists between the percentage of water allocated to agricultural pur poses and food impor ts by GCC countries. Moreover, the results indicate that the high the pressure on the renewable water resources, the more the food impor ts of the GCC countries expand. W hile water shor tage is expected to increase during the coming decades, food impor ts in the GCC countries, therefore, would also continue to increase. The study conc ludes that GCC countries should respond proactivel y by negotiating food and agricultural trade agreements with potential food suppliers of food and to utiliz e overseas agro-food investments in order to ensure privileged access to food production and to cope with the likel y negative impacts addressed by the increased water scarcit y.
PurposeA better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticity of import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU's demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigate demand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU's. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers were calculated and compared.FindingsThe empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, the investigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price of Egyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.Research limitations/implicationsDue to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data on quantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for considering seasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behavior of EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.Originality/valueThe study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze import demand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS, Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitability and performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.
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