Water balance trends in irrigated canal commands and its implications for sustainable water management in Pakistan: Evidence from 1981 to 2012

Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din; Peña‐Arancibia, Jorge L.; Stewart, Joel; Kirby, J. M.

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106648

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Irrigated crop areas for each canal were derived by disaggregating district crop statistics to canal command boundaries through Geographic Information System (GIS) overlay analysis [12,57].…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Predicting future seasonal inflows and the subsequent seasonal allocation, delivery and distribution of surface water resources throughout the IBIS is a laborious and complex process for water managers [2,3]. Water security issues in the basin include changing resource availability [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13], growth in demand from competing users [14][15][16][17][18] and the loss of storage capacity through sedimentation [4,19]. The 2012 Friends of Democratic Pakistan Water Sector Task Force report [20] highlighted the need to build the knowledge and capacity to manage the current and future water security needs of Pakistan, with Young, et al [21] highlighting the need to model the system accurately and transparently as a means to better manage water security risks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Approximately 71% of the 167 km 3 (1976-2020) mean annual inflow to the IBIS is used for agriculture and to a lesser extent for industrial and domestic consumption. Surface water contributes approximately 60% of the irrigation water use in Pakistan [12], with the remainder being made up from groundwater, predominantly in Punjab and in isolated pockets of Sindh province [34], where groundwater supplies are fresh.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tarbela, Mangla, Marala, Nowshera, Balloki and Sulemanki are considered remote inflow measurement (rim) stations for IBIS. For a detailed schematic diagram of the IBIS (depicting the current storage and canal system as of 2020), refer to Figure A1 in Ahmad et al [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Podger

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Water

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Pakistan’s society and economy are highly dependent on the surface and groundwater resources of the Indus River basin. This paper describes the development and implementation of a daily Indus River System Model (IRSM) for the Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) to examine the potential impact of reservoir sedimentation on provincial water security. The model considers both the physical and management characteristics of the system. The model’s performance in replicating provincial allocation ratios is within 0.1% on average and the modeling of water flow at barrages and delivered to irrigation canal commands is in agreement with recorded data (major barrage NSE 0.7). The average maximum volumetric error for the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are respectively 5.2% and 8.8% of mean annual inflow. The model showed that a 2.3 km3 reduction in storage volume since 1990 equates to approximately 1.3 km3 i.e., a 4–5% reduction in irrigation deliveries, respectively, for Punjab and Sindh in the dry (Rabi) season. This decline indicates that without further augmentation of system storage, the Rabi season supplies will continue to be further impacted in the future. This paper demonstrates the suitability of IRSM for exploring long term planning and operational rules and the associated impacts on water, food and energy security in Pakistan.

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Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Podger

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Besides, it helps water resources management-related issues personnel for effective disaster response planning, preventing and reducing the adverse impact [1,2]. Hence, it is fundamentally imperative to obtain hydrological information since the water supply is in demand from all activities, including domestic consumption, agriculture, and various industries [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Evaluation of a Two-Parameters Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Model in the Southern Basin of Thailand

Ditthakit

Pinthong

Salaeh

et al. 2021

Water

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Accurate monthly runoff estimation is crucial in water resources management, planning, and development, preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and droughts. This article evaluates the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model’s performance, the GR2M model, in Thailand’s southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters: production store (X1) and groundwater exchange rate (X2). Moreover, no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand’s southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. The Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model’s performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OI). The model’s calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average NSE, r, and OI of 0.657, 0.825, and 0.757, respectively. Moreover, the NSE, r, and OI values for the model’s verification were 0.472, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. Hence, the GR2M model was qualified and reliable to apply for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of production store (X1) and groundwater exchange rate (X2) values was conducted using the IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1, and X2 values of approximately more than 0.90, gave the higher model’s performance.

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Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin

Shafeeque,

Hafeez,

Sarwar

et al. 2023

Theor Appl Climatol

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Quantifying water-saving potential (WSP) is crucial for sustainable water resource management in canal command areas and river basins. Previous studies have partially or fully ignored the importance of groundwater in WSP assessments, particularly in irrigated areas. This study is aimed at quantifying WSP in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan, under various scenarios of future climate change and groundwater recharge. These quantifications are conducted using an empirical model based on the Budyko theory. The model was forced using observed, remote sensing, and CMIP6 future climate data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and their ensembles (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) for possible futures. The results showed that the average WSP in the LCC command area was 466 ± 48 mm/year during the historical period (2001–2020). The WSP is projected to decrease by – 68 ± 3% under the warm-dry ensemble scenario (SSP245 and SSP585) and – 48 ± 13% under the ensembled cold-wet scenario by 2100. The results also demonstrated that WSP could be increased by up to 70 ± 9% by artificially recharging 20% of the abstracted groundwater per year in the LCC command area by the late twenty-first century. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the WSP and sustainably manage water resources in the LCC command area. Policymakers should consider these findings when deciding on water resource management in the Indus River Basin.

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Water balance trends in irrigated canal commands and its implications for sustainable water management in Pakistan: Evidence from 1981 to 2012

Cited by 22 publications

References 36 publications

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Performance Evaluation of a Two-Parameters Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Model in the Southern Basin of Thailand

Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin

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