Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin

Abstract

Quantifying water-saving potential (WSP) is crucial for sustainable water resource management in canal command areas and river basins. Previous studies have partially or fully ignored the importance of groundwater in WSP assessments, particularly in irrigated areas. This study is aimed at quantifying WSP in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan, under various scenarios of future climate change and groundwater recharge. These quantifications are conducted using an empirical model based on the Budyko theory. The model was forced using observed, remote sensing, and CMIP6 future climate data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and their ensembles (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) for possible futures. The results showed that the average WSP in the LCC command area was 466 ± 48 mm/year during the historical period (2001–2020). The WSP is projected to decrease by – 68 ± 3% under the warm-dry ensemble scenario (SSP245 and SSP585) and – 48 ± 13% under the ensembled cold-wet scenario by 2100. The results also demonstrated that WSP could be increased by up to 70 ± 9% by artificially recharging 20% of the abstracted groundwater per year in the LCC command area by the late twenty-first century. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the WSP and sustainably manage water resources in the LCC command area. Policymakers should consider these findings when deciding on water resource management in the Indus River Basin.

Integrated Assessment and Geostatistical Evaluation of Groundwater Quality through Water Quality Indices

“…Similar or higher proportions of samples over limits were witnessed in the present statewide analysis. Likewise, 21% of samples in Rawalpindi were found to have E. coli contamination beyond permissible guidelines [84,85] as compared to 19% overall across the Punjab provinces. While providing statewide confirmation, the current results build upon these localized investigations on groundwater pollution sources and health hazards in key districts.…”

“…Similar or higher proportions of samples over limits were witnessed in the present statewide analysis. Likewise, 21% of samples in Rawalpindi were found to have E. coli contamination beyond permissible guidelines [84,85] as compared to 19% overall…”

The role of reservoirs under the impacts of climate change on the Srepok River basin, Central Highlands of Vietnam

“…Numerous studies have utilized the SWAT model to examine the impacts of various factors on streamflow and sediment loads (Ahmed et al, 2020). These factors include land use and land cover (LULC) changes (Anaba et al, 2017;Aryal et al, 2022;, the effects of climate change (Vo et al, 2018;Aslam et al, 2022;Shafeeque et al, 2023a;, improvements in ecosystem services (Ashrafi et al, 2022a;Arshad et al, 2022;Ashrafi et al, 2022b;Tapas et al, 2022), and the validation of satellite-based products (Arshad et al, 2021;Tran et al, 2022a;Noor et al, 2023).…”

Numerical Modeling of Groundwater Dynamics and Management Strategies for the Sustainable Groundwater Development in Water-Scarce Agricultural Region of Punjab, Pakistan

“…Ref. [71] reported that 20% recharging to the aquifer would increase the water supply capacity for irrigation by 70% in projected periods. Our findings underscore the efficacy of proactive groundwater management strategies, offering a promising avenue for safeguarding the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources in the LBDC command area.…”