Key Points
Drivers and impacts of Australia's record drought were analyzed
Impacts accumulated and propagated through the water cycle at different rates
Future droughts may not be managed better than past ones.
Abstract:The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie-Castlereagh region for historical and future (¾2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie-Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall-runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval 11 to C7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval 15 to C8%) in mean annual runoff under a ¾2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ¾2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval 10 to C5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval 5 to C3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval 17 to C6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval 11 to C3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records.
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